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Pollster file

Morning Consult

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
89
Mean absolute error
4.18percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.28
Represented cycles
52016–2024
Current archive
223canonical records
History span
Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

89 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 223 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +0.4

Dem 43.37% · Rep 42.96%

Field dates
Sep 22–Sep 28, 2025
Sample
21,729 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.1

Dem 43.87% · Rep 42.74%

Field dates
Sep 15–Sep 21, 2025
Sample
21,386 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.5

Dem 43.89% · Rep 42.44%

Field dates
Sep 8–Sep 14, 2025
Sample
23,465 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2.1

Dem 44.22% · Rep 42.09%

Field dates
Sep 1–Sep 7, 2025
Sample
25,541 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.4

Dem 43.81% · Rep 42.4%

Field dates
Aug 25–Aug 31, 2025
Sample
26,531 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.8

Dem 44.05% · Rep 42.24%

Field dates
Aug 18–Aug 24, 2025
Sample
27,673 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 43.93% · Rep 42.88%

Field dates
Aug 11–Aug 17, 2025
Sample
27,248 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.1

Dem 43.79% · Rep 42.66%

Field dates
Aug 4–Aug 10, 2025
Sample
26,631 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.1

Dem 43.68% · Rep 42.53%

Field dates
Jul 28–Aug 3, 2025
Sample
27,432 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.9

Dem 44.07% · Rep 42.19%

Field dates
Jul 21–Jul 27, 2025
Sample
28,524 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.7

Dem 44.32% · Rep 42.59%

Field dates
Jul 14–Jul 20, 2025
Sample
28,190 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 44.72% · Rep 42.75%

Field dates
Jul 7–Jul 13, 2025
Sample
28,276 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

39 shown · 89 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2415,509D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-2415,509D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2112,000D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-2112,000D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-1812,000D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-1812,000D+8.0D+3.0D+5.0
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-163,347R+5.0R+9.6D+4.6
20202020_Sen-G_SCSen-G2020-10-16926D+2.0R+10.3D+12.3
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-161,904D+6.0R+1.8D+7.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-161,717D+6.0D+1.7D+4.3
20202020_Sen-G_GASen-G2020-10-161,672R+2.0R+1.8R+0.2
20202020_Sen-G_COSen-G2020-10-16788D+8.0D+9.3R+1.3
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-161,066D+4.0D+2.4D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-161,038D+12.0D+0.6D+11.4
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-163,347D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-16926R+6.0R+11.7D+5.7
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-162,563D+9.0D+1.2D+7.8
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-162,271R+2.0R+8.0D+6.0
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-161,904D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-16864D+9.0D+7.1D+1.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-161,717D+8.0D+2.8D+5.2
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-161,6720D+0.2R+0.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-164,685D+7.0R+3.4D+10.4
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-16788D+16.0D+13.5D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-161,066R+1.0D+0.3R+1.3
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-1512,000D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-1512,000D+7.0D+3.0D+4.0
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-11-031,963D+3.0D+8.8R+5.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-11-011,961D+3.0D+8.8R+5.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-282,543D+8.0D+8.8R+0.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-191,968D+6.0D+8.8R+2.8
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-051,482D+3.0D+2.1D+0.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-301,772D+3.0D+2.1D+0.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-301,772D+1.0R+1.1D+2.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-291,037D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-281,794D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-281,794D+5.0R+1.1D+6.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-201,395D+6.0D+2.1D+3.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-201,395D+3.0R+1.1D+4.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.