Call
the Map
FORECAST10 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

Morning Consult

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
89
Mean absolute error
4.18percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.28
Represented cycles
52016–2024
Current archive
243canonical records
History span
Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

89 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 243 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7.3

Dem 50.44% · Rep 43.14%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
17,706 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6.6

Dem 49.65% · Rep 43.07%

Field dates
Oct 5–Oct 11, 2026
Sample
17,654 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6.6

Dem 49.88% · Rep 43.24%

Field dates
Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
17,659 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7.5

Dem 50.27% · Rep 42.81%

Field dates
Sep 21–Sep 27, 2026
Sample
18,786 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7.1

Dem 49.74% · Rep 42.62%

Field dates
Sep 14–Sep 20, 2026
Sample
18,336 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 46% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Sep 10–Sep 15, 2026
Sample
2,102 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 89 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—R+2.0R+3.2D+1.2
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—D+2.0R+1.5D+3.5
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-30—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—D+3.0R+1.5D+4.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—0R+1.7D+1.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—D+1.0R+1.4D+2.4
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-21—0R+5.5D+5.5
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+4.0R+1.5D+5.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+0.9D+0.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+1.7D+1.7
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+1.0R+3.1D+4.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—R+3.0R+3.2D+0.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+2.2D+2.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+5.5D+5.5
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-15—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-11-052,005D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-302,005D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-296,9740R+2.7D+2.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-267,947D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-237,947D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-207,947D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-3014,663D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
2020national · HouseHouse-G2020-10-3014,663D+7.0D+3.0D+4.0
2020TX · SenateSen-G2020-10-273,267R+4.2R+9.6D+5.4
2020SC · SenateSen-G2020-10-27904R+2.2R+10.3D+8.1
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-271,982D+4.9R+1.8D+6.7
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-271,736D+5.7D+1.7D+4.0
2020KY · SenateSen-G2020-10-27911R+11.3R+19.5D+8.2
2020GA · SenateSen-G2020-10-271,743D+1.0R+1.8D+2.8
2020CO · SenateSen-G2020-10-27727D+7.9D+9.3R+1.4
2020AL · SenateSen-G2020-10-27850R+12.1R+20.4D+8.3
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-271,059D+3.5D+2.4D+1.1
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,002D+13.3D+0.6D+12.7
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-2716,374D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
2020TX · PresidentPres-G2020-10-273,2670R+5.6D+5.6
2020SC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-27904R+6.6R+11.7D+5.1
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-272,686D+8.7D+1.2D+7.5
2020OH · PresidentPres-G2020-10-272,179R+2.6R+8.0D+5.4
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,982D+0.7R+1.4D+2.0
2020MO · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,109R+9.4R+15.4D+6.0
2020MN · PresidentPres-G2020-10-27883D+9.3D+7.1D+2.2
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,736D+7.3D+2.8D+4.5
2020IN · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,147R+11.4R+16.1D+4.7
2020GA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,743D+2.4D+0.2D+2.2
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-274,451D+6.1R+3.4D+9.5
2020CO · PresidentPres-G2020-10-27727D+12.9D+13.5R+0.6
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-271,059D+2.3D+0.3D+2.0
2020national · HouseHouse-G2020-10-2716,374D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.