Race
Golden +1HOU-ME-02
Don't know 12% · Jared Golden 44% · Paul LePage 43%
- Field dates
- Jun 4–Jun 10, 2025
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
Mellman Group
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 28
- Mean absolute error
- 4.83percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.92
- Represented cycles
- 82002–2020
- Current archive
- 1canonical records
- History span
- Oct 19, 2002through Dec 20, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2014 · 2020
28 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
1 shown · 1 total
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
28 shown · 28 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GSR_GA | Sen-G | 2020-12-20 | 578 | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2020-12-20 | 578 | D+3.0 | D+1.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2014-10-14 | 800 | D+2.5 | R+1.9 | D+4.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 800 | D+3.0 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+5.8 | R+3.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+0.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+6.7 | R+0.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MT | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 800 | R+8.0 | R+13.7 | D+5.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-G_MT | Gov-G | 2012-10-30 | 800 | D+7.0 | D+1.6 | D+5.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-26 | 800 | D+2.0 | D+0.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 600 | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_ND | Sen-G | 2012-10-23 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+0.9 | D+3.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2012-10-20 | 800 | D+1.0 | D+3.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-20 | 800 | 0 | D+0.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_ND | Sen-G | 2012-10-18 | 600 | D+3.0 | D+0.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2012-10-16 | 600 | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-16 | 600 | D+8.0 | D+6.7 | D+1.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-GS_WI | Gov-G | 2012-05-23 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+6.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2011 | 2011_Gov-GS_WV | Gov-G | 2011-09-18 | 500 | D+10.0 | D+2.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_WI | Gov-G | 2010-10-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+5.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_GA-8 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+3.0 | R+5.4 | D+8.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_MA | Sen-G | 2010-01-09 | 800 | D+14.0 | R+4.8 | D+18.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2008-11-22 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+14.9 | D+12.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_GA-8 | House-G | 2008-10-19 | 400 | D+17.0 | D+14.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_LA | Sen-G | 2008-10-17 | 600 | D+20.0 | D+6.4 | D+13.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_GA-8 | House-G | 2006-10-23 | 400 | D+16.0 | D+1.1 | D+14.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2002-10-19 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+9.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2002-10-19 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | D+3.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.