Lucid
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 25
- Mean absolute error
- 4.15percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.56
- Represented cycles
- 22016–2018
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 18, 2016through Oct 25, 2018
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2018
25 eligible historical polls across 2 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
25 shown · 25 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-25 | 826 | D+6.0 | D+8.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-11-06 | 2,521 | D+5.0 | D+2.1 | D+2.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-11-03 | 2,561 | D+6.0 | D+2.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-31 | 2,617 | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 892 | D+6.0 | D+2.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 972 | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 1,113 | R+12.0 | R+13.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 892 | D+7.0 | D+2.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 567 | D+8.0 | D+8.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 972 | D+7.0 | D+4.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 1,113 | R+1.0 | R+3.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-28 | 2,617 | D+1.0 | D+2.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-25 | 2,602 | D+4.0 | D+2.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-22 | 2,615 | D+5.0 | D+2.1 | D+2.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-19 | 2,127 | D+8.0 | D+2.1 | D+5.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-O_LA | Sen-G | 2016-10-18 | 614 | R+1.0 | R+7.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2016-10-18 | 924 | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2016-10-18 | 807 | R+10.0 | R+13.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2016-10-18 | 892 | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | D+6.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 802 | D+5.0 | D+5.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 924 | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_LA | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 614 | R+3.0 | R+19.6 | D+16.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 807 | D+4.0 | R+5.1 | D+9.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 892 | D+6.0 | R+1.2 | D+7.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2016-10-18 | 924 | D+7.0 | D+0.2 | D+6.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.