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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

Leger

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
11
Mean absolute error
3.01percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.32
Represented cycles
22016–2020
Current archive
8canonical records
History span
Nov 5, 2016through Oct 31, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2020

11 eligible historical polls across 2 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

8 shown · 8 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +10

Dem 52% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
1,004 A
Sponsor / client
338Canada · Maintenant Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +17

Approve 36% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
1,004 A
Sponsor / client
338Canada · Maintenant Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +13

Approve 39% · Disapprove 52%

Field dates
Oct 24–Oct 26, 2025
Sample
1,010 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +12

Approve 38% · Disapprove 50%

Field dates
Sep 26–Sep 29, 2025
Sample
1,010 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +11

Approve 39% · Disapprove 50%

Field dates
Aug 29–Aug 31, 2025
Sample
1,014 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +14

Approve 37% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025
Sample
1,007 A
Sponsor / client
338Canada · Maintenant Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

11 shown · 11 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-31827D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-24834D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-17821D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-06940D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_Sen-G_WASen-G2016-11-05402D+16.0D+18.0R+2.0
20162016_Sen-G_AZSen-G2016-11-05392R+8.0R+13.0D+5.0
20162016_Pres-G_WAPres-G2016-11-05402D+15.0D+16.2R+1.2
20162016_Pres-G_NVPres-G2016-11-053730D+2.5R+2.5
20162016_Pres-G_CAPres-G2016-11-05401D+23.0D+30.1R+7.1
20162016_Pres-G_AZPres-G2016-11-05392R+2.0R+3.5D+1.6
20162016_Gov-G_WAGov-G2016-11-05402D+9.0D+8.8D+0.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.