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Joint polling team

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
33
Mean absolute error
3.39percentage points
Historical bias
R+1.22
Represented cycles
52000–2012
Current archive
0canonical records
History span
Oct 21, 2000through Nov 5, 2012
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Participating organizations
Lake Research Partners · The Tarrance Group
Cycles represented
2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012

33 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

0 shown · 0 total

No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.

This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

33 shown · 33 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-11-051,0000D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-311,0000D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-10-311,0000D+1.1R+1.1
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-241,000D+1.0D+3.9R+2.9
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-10-241,000R+1.0D+1.1R+2.1
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-161,000R+2.0D+3.9R+5.8
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-10-161,0000D+1.1R+1.1
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-19600R+5.0R+6.8D+1.8
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-11-03400D+5.0D+7.3R+2.3
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-291,000D+4.0D+7.3R+3.3
20082008_House-G_USHouse-G2008-10-26800D+4.0D+11.1R+7.1
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-231,000D+3.0D+7.3R+4.3
20082008_House-G_USHouse-G2008-10-191,000D+8.0D+11.1R+3.1
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-161,000D+4.0D+7.3R+3.3
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-11-011,000R+5.0R+2.5R+2.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-11-011,000R+3.0R+2.7R+0.3
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-271,000R+5.0R+2.5R+2.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-27800D+0.5R+2.7D+3.2
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-201,000R+4.0R+2.5R+1.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-20800D+3.5R+2.7D+6.2
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-131,000R+3.0R+2.5R+0.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-131,000D+4.0R+2.7D+6.7
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-11-061,000R+5.0D+0.5R+5.5
20002000_House-G_USHouse-G2000-11-061,000D+2.0R+0.4D+2.4
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-11-011,000R+9.0D+0.5R+9.5
20002000_House-G_USHouse-G2000-11-011,000R+1.0R+0.4R+0.6
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-10-271,000R+5.0D+0.5R+5.5
20002000_House-G_USHouse-G2000-10-271,000D+4.0R+0.4D+4.4
20002000_Pres-G_WIPres-G2000-10-24400D+1.0D+0.2D+0.8
20002000_Pres-G_PAPres-G2000-10-24400D+5.0D+4.2D+0.8
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-10-24400D+1.0D+5.1R+4.1
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-10-211,000R+6.0D+0.5R+6.5
20002000_House-G_USHouse-G2000-10-211,000D+2.0R+0.4D+2.4

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.