Generic ballot
Dem +1Generic ballot
Dem 40% · Rep 39%
- Field dates
- May 16–May 18, 2025
- Sample
- 885 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Ipsos
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 106
- Mean absolute error
- 4.21percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.08
- Represented cycles
- 132002–2024
- Current archive
- 138canonical records
- History span
- Oct 16, 2002through Nov 3, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Reuters/Ipsos
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2003 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
106 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 138 total
Generic ballot
TiedGeneric ballot
Dem 38% · Rep 38%
- Field dates
- Apr 25–Apr 27, 2025
- Sample
- 897 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Rep +2Generic ballot
Dem 38% · Rep 40%
- Field dates
- Mar 21–Mar 23, 2025
- Sample
- 911 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Rep +2Generic ballot
Dem 38% · Rep 40%
- Field dates
- Feb 21–Feb 23, 2025
- Sample
- 891 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Rep +2Generic ballot
Dem 35% · Rep 37%
- Field dates
- Jan 24–Jan 26, 2025
- Sample
- 902 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +7Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 43% · Disapprove 50%
- Field dates
- Mar 3–Mar 4, 2025
- Sample
- 1,174 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +25Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 37% · Disapprove 62%
- Field dates
- Jun 18–Jun 22, 2026
- Sample
- 978 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Dem +5Generic ballot
Dem 43% · Rep 38%
- Field dates
- Aug 28–Aug 31, 2026
- Sample
- 924 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +25Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 37% · Disapprove 62%
- Field dates
- Aug 28–Aug 31, 2026
- Sample
- 924 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +30Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 33% · Disapprove 63%
- Field dates
- Aug 28–Aug 31, 2026
- Sample
- 1,167 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Dem +7Generic ballot
Dem 38% · Rep 31%
- Field dates
- Aug 28–Aug 31, 2026
- Sample
- 1,167 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +31Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 33% · Disapprove 64%
- Field dates
- Aug 14–Aug 17, 2026
- Sample
- 1,166 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
6 shown · 106 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-11-02 | 505 | R+3.0 | R+5.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-31 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+5.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-30 | 600 | 0 | R+5.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-28 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+5.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | R+5.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-16 | 600 | 0 | R+5.0 | D+5.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.