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Pollster file

Ipsos

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 106
Mean absolute error: 4.21percentage points
Historical bias: D+2.08
Represented cycles: 132002–2024
Current archive: 138canonical records
History span: Oct 16, 2002through Nov 3, 2024

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: Reuters/Ipsos
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2002 · 2003 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

106 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 138 total

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 42% · Rep 39%

Field dates: Oct 24–Oct 28, 2025
Sample: 2,725 A
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 46% · Rep 44%

Field dates: Oct 24–Oct 28, 2025
Sample: 2,203 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Tied

Dem 39% · Rep 39%

Field dates: Oct 24–Oct 26, 2025
Sample: 805 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 41% · Rep 38%

Field dates: Oct 15–Oct 20, 2025
Sample: 3,439 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 40% · Rep 38%

Field dates: Oct 3–Oct 7, 2025
Sample: 864 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Rep +3

Dem 36% · Rep 39%

Field dates: Sep 19–Sep 21, 2025
Sample: 799 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 42% · Rep 37%

Field dates: Aug 22–Aug 24, 2025
Sample: 895 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 38% · Rep 34%

Field dates: Aug 22–Aug 24, 2025
Sample: 1,022 A
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 40% · Rep 39%

Field dates: Aug 13–Aug 18, 2025
Sample: 3,516 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 40% · Rep 36%

Field dates: Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025
Sample: 884 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 40% · Rep 38%

Field dates: Jun 20–Jun 23, 2025
Sample: 994 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 40% · Rep 39%

Field dates: Jun 11–Jun 16, 2025
Sample: 3,458 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 106 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2016	2016_House-G_US	House-G	2016-11-05	3,276	D+9.1	R+1.1	D+10.2
2016	2016_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2016-11-04	2,195	D+4.0	D+2.1	D+1.9
2016	2016_House-G_US	House-G	2016-10-31	1,922	D+1.5	R+1.1	D+2.6
2016	2016_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2016-10-30	1,772	D+6.8	D+2.1	D+4.7
2016	2016_House-G_US	House-G	2016-10-26	1,196	D+5.1	R+1.1	D+6.2
2016	2016_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2016-10-25	1,158	D+5.6	D+2.1	D+3.5
2016	2016_House-G_US	House-G	2016-10-21	1,181	D+3.7	R+1.1	D+4.8
2016	2016_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2016-10-20	1,153	D+8.7	D+2.1	D+6.6
2014	2014_Sen-G_ME	Sen-G	2014-10-26	488	R+32.0	R+37.0	D+5.0
2014	2014_Sen-G_IA	Sen-G	2014-10-26	1,129	0	R+8.3	D+8.3
2014	2014_Gov-G_ME	Gov-G	2014-10-26	488	0	R+4.8	D+4.8
2014	2014_Gov-G_IA	Gov-G	2014-10-26	1,129	R+23.0	R+21.7	R+1.3
2014	2014_Sen-G_CO	Sen-G	2014-10-17	1,099	R+2.0	R+1.9	R+0.1
2014	2014_Gov-G_CO	Gov-G	2014-10-17	1,099	0	D+3.3	R+3.3
2012	2012_Sen-G_VA	Sen-G	2012-11-04	828	D+3.0	D+5.9	R+2.9
2012	2012_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2012-11-04	680	D+9.0	D+6.0	D+3.0
2012	2012_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2012-11-04	769	D+15.0	D+13.0	D+2.0
2012	2012_Pres-G_VA	Pres-G	2012-11-04	828	D+2.0	D+3.9	R+1.9
2012	2012_Pres-G_OH	Pres-G	2012-11-04	680	D+4.0	D+3.0	D+1.0
2012	2012_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2012-11-04	769	R+1.0	D+0.9	R+1.9
2012	2012_Pres-G_CO	Pres-G	2012-11-04	774	D+1.0	D+5.4	R+4.4
2012	2012_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2012-11-03	4,725	D+2.0	D+3.9	R+1.9
2012	2012_Sen-G_VA	Sen-G	2012-11-01	1,131	D+5.5	D+5.9	R+0.4
2012	2012_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2012-11-01	1,162.5	D+8.5	D+6.0	D+2.5
2012	2012_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2012-11-01	1,152	D+13.0	D+13.0	R+0.0
2012	2012_Pres-G_VA	Pres-G	2012-11-01	1,131	D+6.0	D+3.9	D+2.1
2012	2012_Pres-G_OH	Pres-G	2012-11-01	1,162.5	D+5.0	D+3.0	D+2.0
2012	2012_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2012-11-01	1,152	D+2.5	D+0.9	D+1.6
2012	2012_Pres-G_CO	Pres-G	2012-11-01	1,139	R+1.5	D+5.4	R+6.9
2012	2012_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2012-10-29	4,085	D+1.0	D+3.9	R+2.9
2012	2012_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2012-10-24	1,423.5	D+2.5	D+3.9	R+1.4
2012	2012_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2012-10-18	1,368	D+1.0	D+3.9	R+2.9
2010	2010_House-G_US	House-G	2010-10-30	600	R+6.0	R+6.8	D+0.8
2010	2010_Sen-G_PA	Sen-G	2010-10-23	400	0	R+2.0	D+2.0
2010	2010_Gov-G_PA	Gov-G	2010-10-23	400	R+6.0	R+9.0	D+3.0
2010	2010_Sen-G_CO	Sen-G	2010-10-19	405	R+3.0	D+1.6	R+4.6
2010	2010_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2010-10-17	577	R+3.0	R+1.1	R+1.9
2010	2010_Sen-G_CA	Sen-G	2010-10-13	448	D+1.0	D+10.0	R+9.0
2010	2010_Gov-G_CA	Gov-G	2010-10-13	448	D+4.0	D+12.9	R+8.9
2008	2008_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2008-10-31	760	D+7.0	D+7.3	R+0.3
2008	2008_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2008-10-25	831	D+6.0	D+7.3	R+1.3
2008	2008_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2008-10-18	773	D+8.0	D+7.3	D+0.7
2006	2006_House-G_US	House-G	2006-10-23	600	D+20.0	D+8.2	D+11.8
2006	2006_House-G_US	House-G	2006-10-23	970	D+19.0	D+8.2	D+10.8
2004	2004_Sen-G_MD	Sen-G	2004-10-26	455	D+37.0	D+31.1	D+5.9
2004	2004_Pres-G_MD	Pres-G	2004-10-26	455	D+21.0	D+13.0	D+8.0
2004	2004_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2004-10-19	976	D+3.0	R+2.5	D+5.5
2004	2004_House-G_US	House-G	2004-10-19	600	D+1.0	R+2.7	D+3.7
2003	2003_Gov-G_MS	Gov-G	2003-10-22	623	R+5.0	R+6.8	D+1.8
2003	2003_Gov-G_KY	Gov-G	2003-10-22	600	R+9.0	R+10.1	D+1.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.