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Pollster file

Ipsos

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
106
Mean absolute error
4.21percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.08
Represented cycles
132002–2024
Current archive
138canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 2002through Nov 3, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Reuters/Ipsos
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2002 · 2003 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

106 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 138 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 35% · Rep 30%

Field dates
Aug 14–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
1,166 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 41% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Aug 14–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
876 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 36% · Rep 30%

Field dates
Jul 29–Aug 3, 2026
Sample
4,505 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 40% · Rep 38%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 26, 2026
Sample
1,003 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 36% · Rep 32%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 26, 2026
Sample
1,248 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 35% · Rep 31%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 22, 2026
Sample
1,262 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 35% · Rep 31%

Field dates
Mar 20–Mar 23, 2026
Sample
1,272 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 40% · Rep 38%

Field dates
Mar 20–Mar 23, 2026
Sample
985 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 43% · Rep 39%

Field dates
Feb 12–Feb 17, 2026
Sample
2,589 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 40% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Dec 12–Dec 15, 2025
Sample
775 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 35% · Rep 33%

Field dates
Dec 3–Dec 8, 2025
Sample
4,434 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 38% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Nov 14–Nov 17, 2025
Sample
818 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 106 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-11-053,276D+9.1R+1.1D+10.2
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-042,195D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-311,922D+1.5R+1.1D+2.6
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-301,772D+6.8D+2.1D+4.7
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-261,196D+5.1R+1.1D+6.2
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-251,158D+5.6D+2.1D+3.5
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-211,181D+3.7R+1.1D+4.8
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-201,153D+8.7D+2.1D+6.6
20142014_Sen-G_MESen-G2014-10-26488R+32.0R+37.0D+5.0
20142014_Sen-G_IASen-G2014-10-261,1290R+8.3D+8.3
20142014_Gov-G_MEGov-G2014-10-264880R+4.8D+4.8
20142014_Gov-G_IAGov-G2014-10-261,129R+23.0R+21.7R+1.3
20142014_Sen-G_COSen-G2014-10-171,099R+2.0R+1.9R+0.1
20142014_Gov-G_COGov-G2014-10-171,0990D+3.3R+3.3
20122012_Sen-G_VASen-G2012-11-04828D+3.0D+5.9R+2.9
20122012_Sen-G_OHSen-G2012-11-04680D+9.0D+6.0D+3.0
20122012_Sen-G_FLSen-G2012-11-04769D+15.0D+13.0D+2.0
20122012_Pres-G_VAPres-G2012-11-04828D+2.0D+3.9R+1.9
20122012_Pres-G_OHPres-G2012-11-04680D+4.0D+3.0D+1.0
20122012_Pres-G_FLPres-G2012-11-04769R+1.0D+0.9R+1.9
20122012_Pres-G_COPres-G2012-11-04774D+1.0D+5.4R+4.4
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-11-034,725D+2.0D+3.9R+1.9
20122012_Sen-G_VASen-G2012-11-011,131D+5.5D+5.9R+0.4
20122012_Sen-G_OHSen-G2012-11-011,162.5D+8.5D+6.0D+2.5
20122012_Sen-G_FLSen-G2012-11-011,152D+13.0D+13.0R+0.0
20122012_Pres-G_VAPres-G2012-11-011,131D+6.0D+3.9D+2.1
20122012_Pres-G_OHPres-G2012-11-011,162.5D+5.0D+3.0D+2.0
20122012_Pres-G_FLPres-G2012-11-011,152D+2.5D+0.9D+1.6
20122012_Pres-G_COPres-G2012-11-011,139R+1.5D+5.4R+6.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-294,085D+1.0D+3.9R+2.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-241,423.5D+2.5D+3.9R+1.4
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-181,368D+1.0D+3.9R+2.9
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-30600R+6.0R+6.8D+0.8
20102010_Sen-G_PASen-G2010-10-234000R+2.0D+2.0
20102010_Gov-G_PAGov-G2010-10-23400R+6.0R+9.0D+3.0
20102010_Sen-G_COSen-G2010-10-19405R+3.0D+1.6R+4.6
20102010_Gov-G_FLGov-G2010-10-17577R+3.0R+1.1R+1.9
20102010_Sen-G_CASen-G2010-10-13448D+1.0D+10.0R+9.0
20102010_Gov-G_CAGov-G2010-10-13448D+4.0D+12.9R+8.9
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-31760D+7.0D+7.3R+0.3
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-25831D+6.0D+7.3R+1.3
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-18773D+8.0D+7.3D+0.7
20062006_House-G_USHouse-G2006-10-23600D+20.0D+8.2D+11.8
20062006_House-G_USHouse-G2006-10-23970D+19.0D+8.2D+10.8
20042004_Sen-G_MDSen-G2004-10-26455D+37.0D+31.1D+5.9
20042004_Pres-G_MDPres-G2004-10-26455D+21.0D+13.0D+8.0
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-19976D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-19600D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
20032003_Gov-G_MSGov-G2003-10-22623R+5.0R+6.8D+1.8
20032003_Gov-G_KYGov-G2003-10-22600R+9.0R+10.1D+1.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.