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Pollster file

Ipsos

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
106
Mean absolute error
4.21percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.08
Represented cycles
132002–2024
Current archive
156canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 2002through Nov 3, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Reuters/Ipsos
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2002 · 2003 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

106 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 156 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +12

Dem 47% · Rep 35%

Field dates
Oct 16–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
1,279 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +11

Dem 40% · Rep 29%

Field dates
Oct 16–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
1,679 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 52% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Oct 9–Oct 13, 2026
Sample
2,032 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 50% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Oct 9–Oct 13, 2026
Sample
2,032 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 37% · Rep 30%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026
Sample
4,506 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 44% · Rep 37%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026
Sample
3,526 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 106 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+2.0R+1.5D+3.5
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-21—D+3.0R+1.5D+4.5
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-11-06452D+1.2R+2.7D+3.9
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-11-01452D+2.5R+2.7D+5.2
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-25452D+1.3R+2.7D+4.0
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-214,413D+3.0R+2.7D+5.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-18937D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-18452R+2.9R+2.7R+0.2
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01914D+7.0D+4.5D+2.5
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-30707D+2.0R+1.8D+3.8
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-30654D+7.0D+1.7D+5.3
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-30610D+9.0D+2.4D+6.7
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30696D+9.0D+0.6D+8.4
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30673D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30707D+1.5R+1.4D+2.9
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30654D+9.0D+2.8D+6.2
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30670D+4.0R+3.4D+7.4
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-30610D+2.5D+0.3D+2.2
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-25825D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-24647D+1.0R+1.8D+2.8
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-24714D+7.0D+2.4D+4.7
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-24647D+1.0R+1.4D+2.4
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-24704D+1.5R+3.4D+4.9
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-24714D+1.0D+0.3D+0.7
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-23652D+6.0D+1.7D+4.3
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-23664D+9.0D+0.6D+8.4
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-23655D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-23652D+9.5D+2.8D+6.7
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-21935D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-18658D+8.0D+2.4D+5.7
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18949D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18658D+3.5D+0.3D+3.2
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-176600R+1.8D+1.8
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-17686D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-17660D+2.5R+1.4D+3.9
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-17686D+7.5D+2.8D+4.7
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-17662D+4.5R+3.4D+7.9
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-16663D+7.0D+0.6D+6.4
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-16653D+4.0D+1.2D+2.8
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-14920D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
2018national · HouseHouse-G2018-11-05896D+6.7D+8.8R+2.0
2018national · HouseHouse-G2018-10-291,457D+4.6D+8.8R+4.2
2018AZ · SenateSen-G2018-10-22799R+2.0D+2.3R+4.3
2018national · HouseHouse-G2018-10-221,943D+5.5D+8.8R+3.3
2018KS · GovernorGov-G2018-10-22986D+2.0D+5.1R+3.1
2018AZ · GovernorGov-G2018-10-22799R+20.0R+14.2R+5.8
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-10-211,069D+5.0R+0.1D+5.1
2018FL · GovernorGov-G2018-10-211,069D+6.0R+0.4D+6.4
2018NV · SenateSen-G2018-10-161,137R+5.7D+5.1R+10.8
2018NV · GovernorGov-G2018-10-161,137R+4.8D+4.2R+9.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.