InsiderAdvantage

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 114
Mean absolute error: 4.43percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.09
Represented cycles: 142004–2025
Current archive: 17canonical records
History span: Oct 12, 2004through Nov 3, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

114 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

5 shown · 17 total

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Approve +6

Approve 52% · Disapprove 46%

Field dates: Sep 29–Sep 30, 2025
Sample: 800 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Approve +10.4

Approve 54% · Disapprove 43.6%

Field dates: Aug 15–Aug 17, 2025
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Approve +10.3

Approve 54.4% · Disapprove 44.1%

Field dates: Jun 15–Jun 16, 2025
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Approve +11

Approve 55% · Disapprove 44%

Field dates: May 17–May 18, 2025
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Approve +17

Approve 56% · Disapprove 39%

Field dates: Jan 20, 2025
Sample: 800 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

14 shown · 114 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2006	2006_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2006-11-02	500	R+14.0	R+19.7	D+5.7
2006	2006_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2006-10-30	500	R+10.0	R+19.7	D+9.7
2006	2006_House-G_GA-12	House-G	2006-10-24	600	D+3.0	D+0.6	D+2.4
2006	2006_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2006-10-24	500	R+17.0	R+19.7	D+2.7
2006	2006_House-G_FL-22	House-G	2006-10-22	600	R+1.0	D+3.8	R+4.8
2006	2006_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2006-10-21	500	R+17.0	R+19.7	D+2.7
2006	2006_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2006-10-18	500	R+16.0	R+19.7	D+3.7
2004	2004_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2004-10-30	400	D+1.0	R+1.1	D+2.1
2004	2004_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2004-10-30	400	0	R+5.0	D+5.0
2004	2004_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2004-10-23	400	R+2.0	R+1.1	R+0.9
2004	2004_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2004-10-20	400	D+7.0	R+1.1	D+8.1
2004	2004_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2004-10-20	400	0	R+5.0	D+5.0
2004	2004_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2004-10-15	400	D+4.0	R+5.0	D+9.0
2004	2004_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2004-10-12	400	R+3.0	R+5.0	D+2.0

2 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.