Race
Jones +4HOU-AR-02
Don't know 8% · Chris Jones 48% · French Hill 44%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
- Sample
- 1,112 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Talk Business & Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Hendrix College
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 17
- Mean absolute error
- 7.83percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+3.01
- Represented cycles
- 52010–2022
- Current archive
- 4canonical records
- History span
- Oct 14, 2010through Oct 18, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022
17 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Don't know 5.65% · Jeff Wadlin 2.95% · Hallie Shoffner 47.4% · Tom Cotton 44%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
- Sample
- 1,217 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Talk Business & Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 8% · Colt Shelby 7% · Fred Love 40% · Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
- Sample
- 1,217 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Talk Business & Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
House
Jones +4AR-02 · House
Chris Jones 48% · French Hill 44%
- Field dates
- Aug 12–Aug 13, 2026
- Sample
- 1,112 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Talk Business & Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
17 shown · 17 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2022-10-18 | 974 | R+20.0 | R+34.6 | D+14.6 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 974 | R+10.0 | R+27.8 | D+17.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2018-10-19 | 528 | R+36.0 | R+33.6 | R+2.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_AR-2 | House-G | 2018-10-18 | 590 | R+12.0 | R+6.3 | R+5.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2016-10-21 | 463 | R+18.0 | R+23.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2016-10-21 | 463 | R+23.5 | R+26.9 | D+3.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2014-10-16 | 2,075 | R+8.5 | R+17.1 | D+8.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_AR-4 | House-G | 2014-10-16 | 607 | R+2.0 | R+11.2 | D+9.2 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_AR-2 | House-G | 2014-10-16 | 605 | D+4.5 | R+8.3 | D+12.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_AR-1 | House-G | 2014-10-16 | 437 | R+22.0 | R+30.9 | D+8.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2014-10-16 | 2,075 | R+8.0 | R+13.9 | D+5.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2010-10-14 | 1,953 | R+13.0 | R+21.0 | D+8.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_AR-4 | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 518 | D+18.0 | D+17.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_AR-3 | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 553 | R+38.0 | R+44.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_AR-2 | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 446 | R+12.0 | R+19.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_AR-1 | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 436 | R+8.0 | R+8.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2010-10-14 | 1,953 | D+16.0 | D+30.8 | R+14.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.