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Pollster file

Hendrix College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
17
Mean absolute error
7.83percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.01
Represented cycles
52010–2022
Current archive
6canonical records
History span
Oct 14, 2010through Oct 18, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2010 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022

17 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

6 shown · 6 total

Cotton +9

Don't know 4.5% · Jeff Wadlin 4.5% · Hallie Shoffner 41% · Tom Cotton 50%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 13, 2026
Sample
709 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sanders +19

Don't know 6% · Colt Shelby 11% · Fred Love 32% · Sarah Huckabee Sanders 51%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 13, 2026
Sample
709 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jones +4

Chris Jones 48% · French Hill 44%

Field dates
Aug 12–Aug 13, 2026
Sample
1,112 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jones +4

Don't know 8% · Chris Jones 48% · French Hill 44%

Field dates
Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
1,112 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shoffner +3.4

Don't know 5.65% · Jeff Wadlin 2.95% · Hallie Shoffner 47.4% · Tom Cotton 44%

Field dates
Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
1,217 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sanders +5

Don't know 8% · Colt Shelby 7% · Fred Love 40% · Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45%

Field dates
Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
1,217 LV
Sponsor / client
Talk Business & Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

17 shown · 17 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2022AR · SenateSen-G2022-10-18974R+20.0R+34.6D+14.6
2022AR · GovernorGov-G2022-10-18974R+10.0R+27.8D+17.8
2018AR · GovernorGov-G2018-10-19528R+36.0R+33.6R+2.4
2018AR-2 · HouseHouse-G2018-10-18590R+12.0R+6.3R+5.7
2016AR · SenateSen-G2016-10-21463R+18.0R+23.6D+5.6
2016AR · PresidentPres-G2016-10-21463R+23.5R+26.9D+3.4
2014AR · SenateSen-G2014-10-162,075R+8.5R+17.1D+8.6
2014AR-4 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-16607R+2.0R+11.2D+9.2
2014AR-2 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-16605D+4.5R+8.3D+12.8
2014AR-1 · HouseHouse-G2014-10-16437R+22.0R+30.9D+8.9
2014AR · GovernorGov-G2014-10-162,075R+8.0R+13.9D+5.9
2010AR · SenateSen-G2010-10-141,953R+13.0R+21.0D+8.0
2010AR-4 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-14518D+18.0D+17.4D+0.6
2010AR-3 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-14553R+38.0R+44.9D+6.9
2010AR-2 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-14446R+12.0R+19.6D+7.6
2010AR-1 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-14436R+8.0R+8.3D+0.3
2010AR · GovernorGov-G2010-10-141,953D+16.0D+30.8R+14.8

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.