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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Joint polling team

Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
30
Mean absolute error
3.17percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.16
Represented cycles
131998–2022
Current archive
21canonical records
History span
Oct 26, 1998through Nov 4, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (D)
Participating organizations
Hart Research Associates · Public Opinion Strategies
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022

30 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

9 shown · 21 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 48% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 12, 2025
Sample
1,000 A
Sponsor / client
CNBC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 49% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Jul 29–Aug 3, 2025
Sample
1,000 A
Sponsor / client
CNBC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 48% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Apr 9–Apr 13, 2025
Sample
1,000 A
Sponsor / client
CNBC
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 48% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Mar 7–Mar 11, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
NBC News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

30 shown · 30 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-11-04786D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-301,000D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-301,000D+5.0D+3.0D+2.0
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-23800D+11.0D+4.5D+6.5
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-11-02774D+7.0D+8.8R+1.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-16645D+9.0D+8.8D+0.3
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-041,282D+4.5D+2.1D+2.4
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-11-041,282D+3.0R+1.1D+4.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-23724D+9.5D+2.1D+7.4
20142014_House-G_USHouse-G2014-10-318260R+5.9D+5.9
20142014_House-G_USHouse-G2014-10-20823R+11.0R+5.9R+5.1
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-11-021,475D+1.0D+3.9R+2.9
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-11-021,475D+2.0D+1.1D+0.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-198160D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-10-19816D+2.0D+1.1D+0.9
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-29748R+5.0R+6.8D+1.8
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-11-021,159D+8.0D+7.3D+0.7
20082008_House-G_USHouse-G2008-11-021,011D+12.0D+11.1D+0.9
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-191,159D+10.5D+7.3D+3.2
20082008_House-G_USHouse-G2008-10-19600D+11.0D+11.1R+0.1
20062006_House-G_USHouse-G2006-10-291,010D+15.0D+8.2D+6.8
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-301,014R+1.0R+2.5D+1.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-301,014D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-176000R+2.5D+2.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-176000R+2.7D+2.7
20022002_House-G_USHouse-G2002-10-201,0120R+5.0D+5.0
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-11-041,026R+3.0D+0.5R+3.5
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-11-03751R+3.0D+0.5R+3.5
20002000_Pres-G_USPres-G2000-10-18600R+2.0D+0.5R+2.5
19981998_House-G_USHouse-G1998-10-261,025D+3.0R+0.9D+3.9

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.