Harstad Strategic Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 11
- Mean absolute error
- 3.72percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.28
- Represented cycles
- 62002–2014
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 15, 2002through Oct 21, 2014
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2012 · 2014
11 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2014-10-21 | 1,004 | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2014-10-20 | 700 | 0 | R+2.1 | D+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2012-10-23 | 600 | D+12.0 | D+9.1 | D+2.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2012-10-16 | 603 | D+12.0 | D+15.7 | R+3.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_ID | Sen-G | 2008-10-21 | 503 | R+12.0 | R+23.6 | D+11.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_ID | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 503 | R+23.0 | R+25.4 | D+2.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_ID-2 | House-G | 2008-10-21 | 230 | R+44.0 | R+42.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_ID-1 | House-G | 2008-10-21 | 273 | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | D+5.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2006-10-25 | 662 | D+6.0 | D+0.9 | D+5.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2004-10-18 | 515 | D+6.0 | D+4.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_CO-7 | House-G | 2002-10-15 | 400 | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | D+1.1 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.