Harris Insights & Analytics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 182
- Mean absolute error
- 5.05percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.11
- Represented cycles
- 81998–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 20, 1998through Nov 1, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2018 · 2020
182 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 182 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,704 | R+5.0 | R+12.8 | D+7.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,833 | R+3.0 | R+3.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,796 | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 8,757 | D+5.0 | D+5.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_ME | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,485 | D+8.0 | D+5.1 | D+2.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MD | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,230 | D+17.0 | D+16.3 | D+0.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,141 | D+26.0 | D+27.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_KY | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,318 | R+12.0 | R+15.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_KS | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 2,543 | R+17.0 | R+20.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IN | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,599 | R+17.0 | R+15.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 8,957 | D+6.0 | D+12.0 | R+6.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_ID | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 908 | R+38.0 | R+39.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 2,478 | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | D+5.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_HI | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 589 | D+15.0 | D+18.3 | R+3.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,987 | R+8.0 | R+11.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 17,033 | D+3.0 | R+0.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CT | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 2,525 | D+11.0 | D+17.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,697 | R+5.0 | R+8.4 | D+3.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 25,017 | D+6.0 | D+11.8 | R+5.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 4,656 | R+12.0 | R+6.3 | R+5.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_AK | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 756 | R+23.0 | R+31.1 | D+8.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_WV | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,691 | D+4.0 | D+2.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,545 | D+13.0 | D+18.7 | R+5.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,643 | R+14.0 | R+13.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,388 | D+8.0 | D+5.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,696 | D+10.0 | D+5.8 | D+4.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_MO | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,830 | R+2.0 | D+0.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,591 | D+12.0 | D+14.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2000-11-02 | 5,788.5 | R+15.5 | R+6.9 | R+8.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-11-02 | 134,000 | R+1.0 | D+0.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2000-11-02 | 11,301 | D+5.0 | D+4.2 | D+0.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-10-23 | 813 | R+5.0 | D+0.5 | R+5.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2000-10-20 | 587 | D+43.0 | D+24.5 | D+18.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2000-10-20 | 587 | R+9.0 | D+0.2 | R+9.2 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,523 | D+8.0 | D+16.8 | R+8.8 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,812 | R+31.0 | R+26.6 | R+4.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 2,149 | R+19.0 | R+12.9 | R+6.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_NY | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 2,243 | D+4.0 | D+10.5 | R+6.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,418 | D+15.0 | D+4.1 | D+10.9 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 977 | D+31.0 | D+28.9 | D+2.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 847 | R+19.0 | R+2.9 | R+16.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,408 | R+18.0 | R+7.2 | R+10.8 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 2,819 | D+22.0 | D+24.9 | R+2.9 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 5,735 | D+2.0 | D+10.1 | R+8.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 1998-10-30 | 850 | R+37.0 | R+41.6 | D+4.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 1998-10-30 | 3,579 | R+48.0 | R+37.1 | R+10.9 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,812 | R+41.0 | R+26.4 | R+14.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 1998-10-30 | 2,149 | R+10.0 | R+5.4 | R+4.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_NY | Gov-G | 1998-10-30 | 2,243 | R+22.0 | R+21.1 | R+0.8 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 1998-10-30 | 1,855 | R+24.0 | R+24.4 | D+0.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.