Harris Insights & Analytics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 182
- Mean absolute error
- 5.05percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.11
- Represented cycles
- 81998–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 20, 1998through Nov 1, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2018 · 2020
182 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 182 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 3,508.5 | D+1.0 | R+2.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 1,204 | D+2.0 | D+2.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 1,218 | D+4.0 | R+2.1 | D+6.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 1,433 | D+4.0 | R+5.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-30 | 1,092 | R+4.0 | R+2.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-26 | 1,092 | R+2.0 | R+2.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-21 | 820 | R+2.0 | R+2.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-24 | 882 | D+4.0 | R+5.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-11-04 | 1,348 | 0 | D+0.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-OS_GA | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,862 | D+17.0 | D+20.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_WV | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,683 | D+58.0 | D+57.6 | D+0.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,163 | D+21.0 | D+24.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,542 | R+2.0 | D+0.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 7,462 | R+5.0 | R+4.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,638 | R+32.0 | R+34.1 | D+2.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 17,907 | R+32.0 | R+32.8 | D+0.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,165 | R+27.0 | R+32.9 | D+5.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 10,956 | R+23.0 | R+24.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NY | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 13,590 | D+5.0 | D+12.3 | R+7.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,833 | R+9.0 | R+15.7 | D+6.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,656 | D+26.0 | D+23.4 | D+2.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 7,193 | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,477 | D+7.0 | D+2.2 | D+4.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,833 | 0 | D+2.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,793 | D+10.0 | D+5.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,748 | 0 | D+1.6 | R+1.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_ME | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,473 | R+42.0 | R+37.9 | R+4.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,198 | D+25.0 | D+26.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MA | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,109 | D+53.0 | D+59.9 | R+6.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,592 | R+46.0 | R+34.7 | R+11.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_HI | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 585 | D+29.0 | D+48.2 | R+19.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 16,996 | D+4.0 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 2,504 | D+27.0 | D+29.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2000-11-03 | 24,965 | D+12.0 | D+19.3 | R+7.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_WV | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,689 | R+4.0 | R+6.3 | D+2.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,168 | 0 | D+0.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 6,549 | R+1.0 | D+5.6 | R+6.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 7,488 | R+6.0 | R+8.1 | D+2.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,641 | R+40.0 | R+40.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_TX | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 17,936 | R+18.0 | R+21.3 | D+3.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_TN | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 5,187 | R+2.0 | R+3.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,376 | D+7.0 | D+0.4 | D+6.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_OK | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 3,206 | R+22.0 | R+21.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 10,975 | R+3.0 | R+3.5 | D+0.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NY | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 13,590 | D+15.0 | D+25.0 | R+10.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,835 | R+3.0 | R+3.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,657 | D+5.0 | D+0.1 | D+4.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NJ | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 7,217 | D+14.0 | D+15.8 | R+1.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,400 | D+2.0 | R+1.3 | D+3.3 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_NE | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,481 | R+19.0 | R+29.0 | D+10.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.