Harris Insights & Analytics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 182
- Mean absolute error
- 5.05percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.11
- Represented cycles
- 81998–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 20, 1998through Nov 1, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2018 · 2020
182 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 182 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-11-01 | 2,297 | D+4.0 | D+4.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-11-01 | 2,297 | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 1,972 | D+8.0 | D+4.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 901 | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 903 | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | D+2.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 1,148 | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 2,359 | D+6.0 | D+4.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-10-27 | 2,359 | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2020-10-14 | 1,289 | D+7.0 | D+1.7 | D+5.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 1,897 | D+4.0 | D+4.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 992 | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 1,289 | D+11.0 | D+2.8 | D+8.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 965 | 0 | R+3.4 | D+3.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-11-05 | 2,134 | D+11.5 | D+8.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+2.3 | D+5.1 | R+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+0.8 | R+5.8 | D+5.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+1.1 | R+5.9 | D+4.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+0.6 | R+0.1 | R+0.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+4.6 | D+2.3 | D+2.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+0.2 | D+4.2 | R+4.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+2.4 | R+0.4 | D+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2018-11-04 | 600 | R+14.3 | R+14.2 | R+0.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 500 | D+7.8 | D+3.5 | D+4.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-11-03 | 1,000 | D+6.0 | D+8.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+0.8 | D+5.1 | R+5.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+0.9 | R+5.8 | D+4.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | D+2.4 | R+5.9 | D+8.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+2.6 | R+0.1 | R+2.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+5.6 | D+2.3 | R+7.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+3.4 | D+4.2 | R+7.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | D+4.7 | R+0.4 | D+5.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+19.9 | R+14.2 | R+5.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-31 | 2,117 | D+5.5 | D+8.8 | R+3.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2018-10-29 | 500 | D+6.7 | D+3.5 | D+3.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | D+2.9 | D+5.1 | R+2.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | D+1.9 | R+5.8 | D+7.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | R+0.5 | R+5.9 | D+5.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | R+0.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | R+4.8 | D+2.3 | R+7.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,835 | D+9.0 | D+8.8 | D+0.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | D+2.1 | D+4.2 | R+2.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | D+2.3 | R+0.4 | D+2.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 1,400 | R+22.2 | R+14.2 | R+8.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-24 | 3,455 | D+5.5 | D+8.8 | R+3.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-20 | 1,000 | D+6.0 | D+8.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-11-01 | 3,946 | D+8.0 | D+7.3 | D+0.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-24 | 1,695 | D+6.0 | D+7.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 1,390 | D+6.0 | D+7.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 1,000 | D+15.0 | D+8.2 | D+6.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 795 | D+14.0 | D+8.2 | D+5.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.