Grove Insight
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 29
- Mean absolute error
- 2.96percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.85
- Represented cycles
- 42006–2012
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 24, 2006through Nov 2, 2012
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012
29 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
29 shown · 29 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-11-02 | 500 | D+6.0 | D+6.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-11-02 | 500 | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2012-11-02 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+5.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 500 | D+7.0 | D+9.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-29 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+3.0 | D+0.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-29 | 600 | D+1.0 | D+0.9 | D+0.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-10-29 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2012-10-28 | 500 | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-28 | 500 | D+6.0 | D+6.7 | R+0.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-10-25 | 500 | D+5.0 | D+6.8 | R+1.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2012-10-25 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+5.6 | R+2.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 500 | D+3.0 | R+2.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+0.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_CA-52 | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-10-18 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+6.8 | R+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2012-10-18 | 500 | D+3.0 | R+2.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-18 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+0.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-16 | 500 | D+7.0 | D+6.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-10-16 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OR | Gov-G | 2010-10-23 | 500 | D+4.0 | D+1.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MN-1 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 400 | D+16.0 | D+5.3 | D+10.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_OR-4 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 400 | D+14.0 | D+10.9 | D+3.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2008-10-24 | 600 | R+4.0 | R+8.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_MI-9 | House-G | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+10.0 | D+9.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_NJ-3 | House-G | 2008-10-16 | 400 | D+8.0 | D+4.2 | D+3.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_OH-1 | House-G | 2006-10-26 | 400 | D+9.0 | R+4.5 | D+13.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_CT-2 | House-G | 2006-10-25 | 400 | D+4.0 | D+0.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_NY-20 | House-G | 2006-10-24 | 400 | D+3.0 | D+6.2 | R+3.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.