Senate
Hinson +3Iowa · Senate
Ashley Hinson 47% · Zach Wahls 44%
- Field dates
- Mar 10–Mar 16, 2026
- Sample
- 1,200 LV
- Sponsor / client
- ModSquad
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
GBAO
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 13
- Mean absolute error
- 5.20percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.83
- Represented cycles
- 42012–2020
- Current archive
- 28canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2012through Oct 26, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- GBAO (D) · GBAO Strategies · GBAO Strategies (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2012 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020
13 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 28 total
Approval
Disapprove +14Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 43% · Disapprove 57%
- Field dates
- Feb 6–Feb 9, 2026
- Sample
- 1,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +13Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 43% · Disapprove 56%
- Field dates
- Nov 19–Nov 26, 2025
- Sample
- 2,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Third Way
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +2Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 48% · Disapprove 50%
- Field dates
- Mar 17–Mar 23, 2025
- Sample
- 2,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Third Way
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
13 shown · 13 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_KS | Sen-G | 2020-10-26 | 600 | D+0.5 | R+11.4 | D+11.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-17 | 1,150 | D+13.0 | D+4.5 | D+8.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-10-17 | 1,150 | D+12.0 | D+3.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2020-10-16 | 600 | D+11.0 | D+6.1 | D+4.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2020-10-16 | 600 | D+13.0 | D+10.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_TX-6 | House-G | 2020-10-15 | 400 | R+4.0 | R+8.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-12 | House-G | 2018-10-21 | 570 | 0 | R+4.2 | D+4.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2018-10-20 | 1,000 | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-GS_OH-12 | House-G | 2018-07-24 | 500 | R+3.0 | R+0.8 | R+2.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_House-G_MN-2 | House-G | 2016-10-28 | 500 | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | D+6.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+10.0 | D+5.7 | D+4.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_NY-25 | House-G | 2012-10-18 | 400 | D+10.0 | D+14.8 | R+4.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_IL-17 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 450 | D+4.0 | D+6.6 | R+2.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.