Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 33
- Mean absolute error
- 5.39percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.59
- Represented cycles
- 101998–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 1998through Oct 21, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2020 · 2022
33 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
33 shown · 33 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2022-10-21 | 501 | D+1.0 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2022-10-20 | 503 | D+3.0 | D+1.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2022-10-18 | 504 | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_OH-10 | House-G | 2020-10-17 | 400 | R+4.0 | R+16.7 | D+12.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2020-10-13 | 600 | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | D+6.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2020-10-13 | 600 | D+7.0 | D+0.2 | D+6.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_House-G_IN-9 | House-G | 2016-10-18 | 400 | 0 | R+13.7 | D+13.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-26 | 802 | 0 | R+8.3 | D+8.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_MA-6 | House-G | 2014-10-17 | 406 | D+11.0 | D+13.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NJ-5 | House-G | 2014-10-14 | 400 | R+5.0 | R+12.1 | D+7.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2012-10-28 | 807 | D+1.0 | D+3.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_CT-5 | House-G | 2012-10-22 | 400 | D+4.0 | D+2.6 | D+1.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2012-10-17 | 802 | D+4.0 | D+5.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_IL-11 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 402 | D+4.0 | D+17.1 | R+13.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2012-10-16 | 604 | D+13.0 | D+9.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-GS_WI | Gov-G | 2012-05-30 | 935 | R+2.0 | R+6.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-GS_WI | Gov-G | 2012-05-23 | 935 | R+1.3 | R+6.8 | D+5.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2008-10-27 | 502 | R+2.0 | R+5.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2008-10-14 | 608 | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MD | Gov-G | 2006-10-29 | 905 | D+6.0 | D+6.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 811 | D+4.0 | D+0.4 | D+3.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2006-10-24 | 602 | D+12.0 | D+10.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_PA-6 | House-G | 2006-10-23 | 404 | D+3.0 | R+1.3 | D+4.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2004-10-23 | 502 | R+1.0 | R+1.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 504 | R+1.0 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2004-10-16 | 600 | 0 | R+1.3 | D+1.3 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2002-10-29 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+8.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2002-10-28 | 606 | D+16.0 | D+7.1 | D+8.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2002-10-28 | 604 | R+3.0 | R+12.8 | D+9.8 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2002-10-23 | 603 | R+4.0 | R+8.6 | D+4.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_NY | Sen-G | 1998-10-13 | 902 | D+4.0 | D+10.5 | R+6.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_House-G_ID-2 | House-G | 1998-10-13 | 400 | D+6.0 | R+7.8 | D+13.8 |
| 1998 | 1998_House-G_ID-1 | House-G | 1998-10-13 | 372 | D+2.0 | R+10.5 | D+12.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.