Generic ballot
Dem +4Generic ballot
Dem 42.1% · Rep 38.1%
- Field dates
- Feb 10, 2026
- Sample
- 1,148 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Focaldata
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 7
- Mean absolute error
- 3.86percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.42
- Represented cycles
- 12024
- Current archive
- 43canonical records
- History span
- Nov 1, 2024through Nov 1, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2024
7 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
7 shown · 43 total
Generic ballot
Dem +2Generic ballot
Dem 42% · Rep 40%
- Field dates
- Jan 23–Jan 26, 2026
- Sample
- 2,037 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Dem +7Generic ballot
Dem 50% · Rep 43%
- Field dates
- Jun 26–Jun 30, 2026
- Sample
- 1,795 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Financial Times
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +14.9Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 39.2179% · Disapprove 54.1248%
- Field dates
- May 1–May 5, 2026
- Sample
- 3,167 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Financial Times
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +18Presidential approval · Approval
Disapprove 54.9107% · Approve 36.9412%
- Field dates
- May 1–May 5, 2026
- Sample
- 3,612 A
- Sponsor / client
- Financial Times
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Dem +7.4Generic ballot
Dem 51.862% · Rep 44.4652%
- Field dates
- May 1–May 5, 2026
- Sample
- 3,017 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Financial Times
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +19Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 34% · Disapprove 53%
- Field dates
- Feb 10, 2026
- Sample
- 1,148 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
7 shown · 7 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+3.0 | R+0.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2024 | NV · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | 0 | R+3.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-01 | — | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.