Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

Focaldata

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
7
Mean absolute error
3.86percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.42
Represented cycles
12024
Current archive
43canonical records
History span
Nov 1, 2024through Nov 1, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2024

7 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 43 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4.5

Dem 47.6% · Rep 43.1%

Field dates
May 29–Jun 1, 2026
Sample
1,537 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3.1

Dem 45% · Rep 41.85%

Field dates
May 29–Jun 1, 2026
Sample
1,719 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7.7

Dem 46.44% · Rep 38.76%

Field dates
May 1–May 5, 2026
Sample
3,612 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5.6

Dem 44.5% · Rep 38.93%

Field dates
Mar 6–Mar 10, 2026
Sample
1,782 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5.7

Dem 47.74% · Rep 42.03%

Field dates
Mar 6–Mar 10, 2026
Sample
1,534 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

7 shown · 7 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—D+3.0R+0.9D+3.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—D+2.0R+1.7D+3.7
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—D+1.0R+3.1D+4.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—0R+3.2D+3.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—D+5.0R+1.4D+6.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—R+1.0R+5.5D+4.5

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.