Elway Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 20
- Mean absolute error
- 3.66percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.28
- Represented cycles
- 92000–2016
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 19, 2000through Oct 21, 2016
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2003 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016
20 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
20 shown · 20 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+24.0 | D+18.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+17.0 | D+16.2 | D+0.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+12.0 | D+8.8 | D+3.2 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_OR | Sen-G | 2014-10-27 | 400 | D+19.0 | D+18.9 | D+0.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_OR | Gov-G | 2014-10-27 | 403 | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2012-10-27 | 405 | D+6.0 | D+12.2 | R+6.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2012-10-20 | 451 | R+2.0 | D+3.1 | R+5.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_OR-5 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 400 | D+12.0 | D+5.3 | D+6.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_OR-1 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 400 | D+13.0 | D+12.8 | D+0.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OR | Gov-G | 2010-10-19 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+1.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 405 | D+19.0 | D+17.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2008-10-18 | 405 | D+12.0 | D+6.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2006-10-20 | 405 | D+18.0 | D+16.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+17.0 | D+12.2 | D+4.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+6.0 | D+7.2 | R+1.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+7.0 | 0 | D+7.0 |
| 2003 | 2003_Gov-GS_CA | Gov-G | 2003-10-03 | 1,000 | R+8.0 | R+17.1 | D+9.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2000-10-19 | 400 | R+3.0 | D+0.1 | R+3.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2000-10-19 | 400 | D+9.0 | D+5.6 | D+3.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2000-10-19 | 400 | D+25.0 | D+18.7 | D+6.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.