Elon University
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 9
- Mean absolute error
- 3.16percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.95
- Represented cycles
- 52008–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 2008through Oct 17, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2008 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2024
9 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
9 shown · 9 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | 0 | R+3.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2016-10-25 | 710 | R+3.6 | R+5.7 | D+2.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2016-10-25 | 710 | D+0.8 | R+3.7 | D+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2016-10-25 | 710 | 0 | D+0.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2014-10-23 | 687 | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,238 | D+0.1 | R+2.0 | D+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,238 | R+14.0 | R+11.4 | R+2.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2008-10-29 | 797 | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2008-10-29 | 797 | D+7.0 | D+0.3 | D+6.7 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.