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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

Echelon Insights

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
15
Mean absolute error
2.75percentage points
Historical bias
R+0.79
Represented cycles
52020–2025
Current archive
82canonical records
History span
Oct 18, 2020through Oct 31, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

15 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 82 total

Turek +1

Don't know 9% · Josh Turek 46% · Ashley Hinson 45%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026
Sample
377 LV
Sponsor / client
NetChoice
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Bottoms +6

Don't know 9% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49% · Burt Jones 43%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026
Sample
407 LV
Sponsor / client
NetChoice
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Husted +6

Don't know 4% · Sherrod Brown 45% · Jon Husted 51%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026
Sample
413 LV
Sponsor / client
NetChoice
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Bottoms +6

Don't know 8% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49% · Rick Jackson 43%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026
Sample
407 LV
Sponsor / client
NetChoice
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hochul +15

Don't know 6% · Kathy Hochul 55% · Bruce Blakeman 40%

Field dates
Mar 24–Mar 26, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Tusk Strategies
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 45% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Sep 5–Sep 7, 2025
Sample
1,030 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 50% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Aug 13–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
1,002 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 50% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Jul 9–Jul 13, 2026
Sample
1,004 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

15 shown · 15 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-31—D+12.0D+15.4R+3.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-10-31—R+3.0D+6.7R+9.7
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-30—0R+0.9D+0.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-30—R+5.5R+1.7R+3.8
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-30—0R+1.4D+1.4
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-11-01500R+5.5D+1.0R+6.5
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-11-01500R+8.0R+7.5R+0.5
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-10-25500R+1.0D+0.8R+1.8
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-251,014D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-10-25500R+1.5R+1.5D+0.0
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-19500D+3.0D+4.9R+1.9
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-19500D+12.0D+14.8R+2.8
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-28611R+3.0R+1.9R+1.1
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-181,006D+6.5D+4.5D+2.0
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-181,006D+4.0D+3.0D+1.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.