DFM Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 6.44percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.47
- Represented cycles
- 42008–2018
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 14, 2008through Oct 25, 2018
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2008 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018
10 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2018-10-25 | 683 | R+15.0 | R+19.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NE-2 | House-G | 2018-10-24 | 350 | R+7.0 | R+2.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 508 | 0 | R+2.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 508 | R+9.0 | R+18.6 | D+9.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_MO | Gov-G | 2016-10-30 | 508 | D+6.0 | R+5.6 | D+11.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NE-2 | House-G | 2014-10-23 | 365 | D+5.0 | D+3.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_ND-1 | House-G | 2014-10-15 | 430 | R+7.0 | R+17.1 | D+10.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_ND | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 504 | D+3.0 | R+8.6 | D+11.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_ND-1 | House-G | 2008-10-14 | 504 | D+25.0 | D+23.9 | D+1.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_ND | Gov-G | 2008-10-14 | 504 | R+44.0 | R+50.9 | D+6.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.