Data Orbital
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 17
- Mean absolute error
- 2.57percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.22
- Represented cycles
- 52016–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 18, 2016through Oct 28, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
17 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
17 shown · 17 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-28 | — | R+8.0 | R+5.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2022-11-05 | 550 | D+1.7 | D+4.9 | R+3.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2022-11-05 | 550 | R+3.1 | D+0.7 | R+3.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 550 | R+2.5 | D+0.7 | R+3.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-29 | 550 | D+1.1 | D+2.4 | R+1.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-29 | 550 | D+0.6 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-17 | 550 | D+6.2 | D+2.4 | D+3.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-17 | 550 | D+5.2 | D+0.3 | D+4.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-10-17 | 600 | D+6.8 | D+2.3 | D+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2016-11-05 | 550 | R+12.0 | R+13.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-11-05 | 550 | R+3.0 | R+3.5 | D+0.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2016-11-02 | 550 | R+11.0 | R+13.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 550 | R+8.0 | R+3.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 550 | R+10.0 | R+13.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 550 | R+4.0 | R+3.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-10-27 | 550 | R+2.0 | R+3.5 | D+1.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 550 | 0 | R+3.5 | D+3.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.