Dan Jones & Associates
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 35
- Mean absolute error
- 4.36percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.34
- Represented cycles
- 82002–2016
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 27, 2002through Oct 24, 2016
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016
35 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
35 shown · 35 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2016-10-24 | 823 | R+8.0 | R+18.1 | D+10.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_UT-4 | House-G | 2014-10-25 | 402 | R+5.0 | R+5.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2014-10-22 | 219 | R+51.0 | R+49.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2014-10-22 | 207 | R+32.0 | R+28.3 | R+3.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2014-10-22 | 201 | R+32.0 | R+36.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2012-10-29 | 870 | R+37.0 | R+35.3 | R+1.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2012-10-29 | 870 | R+43.0 | R+48.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_UT-4 | House-G | 2012-10-29 | 414 | R+5.0 | D+0.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2012-10-29 | 232 | R+50.0 | R+53.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2012-10-29 | 229 | R+16.0 | R+28.7 | D+12.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2012-10-29 | 194 | R+57.0 | R+46.8 | R+10.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2012-10-29 | 870 | R+45.0 | R+40.8 | R+4.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2010-10-27 | 1,206 | R+27.0 | R+28.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2010-10-27 | 375 | R+51.0 | R+49.4 | R+1.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2010-10-27 | 456 | D+12.0 | D+4.4 | D+7.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2010-10-27 | 375 | R+45.0 | R+45.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-GS_UT | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 1,206 | R+34.0 | R+32.2 | R+1.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2010-10-13 | 600 | R+22.0 | R+28.8 | D+6.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-GS_UT | Gov-G | 2010-10-13 | 600 | R+25.0 | R+32.2 | D+7.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 600 | R+48.0 | R+49.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 226 | D+26.0 | D+4.4 | D+21.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 600 | R+45.0 | R+45.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2008-10-27 | 1,205 | R+25.0 | R+28.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2008-10-27 | 383 | R+34.0 | R+37.3 | D+3.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2008-10-27 | 445 | D+39.0 | D+28.9 | D+10.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2008-10-27 | 377 | R+33.0 | R+34.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2008-10-27 | 1,205 | R+61.0 | R+57.9 | R+3.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2006-10-30 | 386 | R+29.0 | R+25.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2004-10-25 | 1,228 | R+43.0 | R+40.3 | R+2.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2004-10-25 | 1,228 | R+45.0 | R+45.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2004-10-25 | 400 | R+30.0 | R+30.9 | D+0.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2004-10-25 | 430 | D+10.0 | D+11.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2004-10-25 | 400 | R+43.0 | R+38.8 | R+4.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2004-10-25 | 1,228 | R+16.0 | R+16.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2002-10-27 | 515 | D+6.0 | D+0.7 | D+5.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.