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Pollster file

Clarity Campaign Labs

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
16
Mean absolute error
3.92percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.37
Represented cycles
72012–2025
Current archive
29canonical records
History span
Oct 25, 2012through Oct 17, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

16 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 29 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 49% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Dec 4–Dec 11, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +11

Approve 44% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates
Dec 4–Dec 11, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +6

Approve 46% · Disapprove 52%

Field dates
Oct 16–Oct 23, 2025
Sample
1,047 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 47% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Oct 16–Oct 23, 2025
Sample
1,047 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +10

Abigail Spanberger 53% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43%

Field dates
Oct 14–Oct 17, 2025
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
Democratic Attorneys General Association
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Disapprove +6

Approve 46% · Disapprove 52%

Field dates
Sep 4–Sep 11, 2025
Sample
1,001 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 50% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Sep 4–Sep 11, 2025
Sample
1,001 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 51% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 31, 2025
Sample
1,018 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +5

Approve 46% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 31, 2025
Sample
1,018 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 50% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Jun 5–Jun 14, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +3

Approve 47% · Disapprove 50%

Field dates
Jun 5–Jun 14, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1

Dem 44% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Apr 9–Apr 14, 2025
Sample
1,008 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

16 shown · 16 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-17—D+10.0D+15.4R+5.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-10-17—0D+6.7R+6.7
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-23—D+4.0R+1.5D+5.5
20222022_Sen-G_WISen-G2022-10-29888D+2.0R+1.0D+3.0
20182018_House-G_CA-4House-G2018-10-16840R+4.0R+8.3D+4.3
20162016_Sen-G_PASen-G2016-11-031,033D+3.0R+1.4D+4.4
20162016_Pres-G_PAPres-G2016-11-031,033D+4.0R+0.7D+4.7
20162016_Sen-G_WISen-G2016-11-021,129D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
20162016_Sen-G_MOSen-G2016-11-021,036R+2.0R+2.8D+0.8
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-11-021,129D+4.0R+0.8D+4.8
20162016_Pres-G_MOPres-G2016-11-021,036R+16.0R+18.6D+2.6
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-11-021,0030R+4.1D+4.1
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-201,032D+15.0D+13.3D+1.7
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-201,032D+3.0R+4.1D+7.1
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-25825D+7.0D+5.8D+1.2
20122012_Gov-G_INGov-G2012-10-25825R+3.0R+2.9R+0.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.