Ciruli Associates
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 20
- Mean absolute error
- 3.62percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.37
- Represented cycles
- 61998–2016
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 1998through Oct 30, 2016
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2016
20 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
20 shown · 20 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 550 | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 550 | D+0.5 | D+4.9 | R+4.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2006-10-21 | 501 | D+19.0 | D+16.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2004-10-17 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2004-10-17 | 600 | R+6.5 | R+4.7 | R+1.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_CO-4 | House-G | 2004-10-12 | 400 | R+17.0 | R+6.3 | R+10.7 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2002-10-31 | 400 | D+1.0 | R+4.9 | D+5.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2002-10-31 | 400 | R+36.0 | R+29.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2002-10-27 | 400 | R+2.0 | R+4.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2002-10-27 | 400 | R+36.0 | R+29.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2002-10-23 | 500 | R+6.5 | R+4.9 | R+1.6 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2002-10-22 | 400 | R+37.0 | R+29.0 | R+8.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2002-10-21 | 600 | R+28.0 | R+29.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2000-11-02 | 400 | R+9.0 | R+8.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2000-10-29 | 400 | R+9.0 | R+8.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2000-10-25 | 400 | R+10.0 | R+8.4 | R+1.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 1998-10-28 | 500 | R+4.0 | R+0.6 | R+3.4 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 1998-10-25 | 400 | R+29.0 | R+27.5 | R+1.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 1998-10-22 | 500 | R+6.0 | R+0.6 | R+5.4 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 1998-10-21 | 400 | R+31.0 | R+27.5 | R+3.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.