Governor
Spanberger +7GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 50% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43%
- Field dates
- Oct 21–Oct 23, 2025
- Sample
- 803 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 15
- Mean absolute error
- 4.27percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.83
- Represented cycles
- 92010–2025
- Current archive
- 4canonical records
- History span
- Oct 18, 2010through Oct 23, 2025
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Christopher Newport University
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2025
15 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Governor
Spanberger +10GOV-VA
Winsome Earle-Sears 42% · Abigail Spanberger 52%
- Field dates
- Sep 29–Oct 1, 2025
- Sample
- 805 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +12GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 52% · Winsome Earle-Sears 40%
- Field dates
- Sep 8–Sep 14, 2025
- Sample
- 808 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +5GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 44% · Winsome Earle-Sears 39%
- Field dates
- Jan 6–Jan 13, 2025
- Sample
- 806 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
15 shown · 15 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-23 | — | D+7.0 | D+15.4 | R+8.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-10-23 | — | R+1.0 | D+6.7 | R+7.7 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-21 | 944 | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2020-10-21 | 908 | D+20.0 | D+12.1 | D+7.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2020-10-21 | 908 | D+12.0 | D+10.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_VA-2 | House-G | 2020-10-13 | 807 | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | D+1.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_VA-7 | House-G | 2018-10-23 | 830.5 | D+2.0 | D+1.9 | D+0.1 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-11-01 | 839 | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-10-23 | 812 | D+7.0 | D+8.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-11-04 | 1,193 | D+6.0 | D+5.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-25 | 814 | D+7.0 | D+5.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-18 | 834 | D+12.0 | D+5.4 | D+6.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2014-10-26 | 634 | D+7.0 | D+0.8 | D+6.2 |
| 2013 | 2013_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2013-10-28 | 1,038 | D+7.0 | D+2.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_VA-2 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 490 | R+1.0 | R+10.7 | D+9.7 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.