Carroll Strategies
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 5
- Mean absolute error
- 9.88percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+2.91
- Represented cycles
- 12018
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 2018through Nov 1, 2018
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2018
5 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
5 shown · 5 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2018-11-01 | 1,202 | D+12.8 | D+23.6 | R+10.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NM-3 | House-G | 2018-10-29 | 410 | D+24.6 | D+32.2 | R+7.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NM-2 | House-G | 2018-10-29 | 338 | R+5.0 | D+1.9 | R+6.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_NM-1 | House-G | 2018-10-29 | 452 | D+7.9 | D+22.8 | R+14.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NM | Gov-G | 2018-10-29 | 1,200 | D+5.1 | D+14.4 | R+9.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.