Big Village
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 75
- Mean absolute error
- 4.21percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.29
- Represented cycles
- 82006–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2006through Oct 23, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2022 · 2024
75 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
25 shown · 75 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 768 | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 779 | D+5.5 | D+4.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 684 | D+7.0 | D+12.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 667 | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | D+5.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 825 | R+2.0 | R+0.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 690 | R+4.5 | R+5.2 | D+0.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 747 | D+4.5 | D+2.8 | D+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 774 | D+7.5 | D+8.9 | R+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 807 | R+6.5 | R+8.5 | D+2.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WV | Pres-G | 2008-10-20 | 674 | R+10.5 | R+13.1 | D+2.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2008-10-20 | 647 | D+8.5 | D+6.3 | D+2.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2008-10-20 | 737 | D+4.5 | D+4.6 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2008-10-20 | 700 | D+5.5 | D+12.6 | R+7.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2008-10-20 | 644 | D+4.5 | D+0.3 | D+4.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 755 | D+5.5 | D+7.3 | R+1.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-11-04 | 636 | D+20.0 | D+8.2 | D+11.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 597 | D+4.0 | D+0.4 | D+3.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 541 | R+8.0 | R+2.7 | R+5.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 542 | D+11.0 | D+12.3 | R+1.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 577 | D+7.0 | D+16.0 | R+9.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2006-10-28 | 565 | 0 | D+2.3 | R+2.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+11.0 | D+8.2 | D+2.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2006-10-28 | 541 | D+22.0 | D+38.9 | R+16.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2006-10-28 | 542 | D+23.0 | D+23.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-10-21 | 600 | D+17.0 | D+8.2 | D+8.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.