Big Village
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 75
- Mean absolute error
- 4.21percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.29
- Represented cycles
- 82006–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2006through Oct 23, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2022 · 2024
75 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 75 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | national · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-23 | — | D+7.0 | R+1.5 | D+8.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-11-03 | 702 | D+3.8 | R+2.7 | D+6.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-11-01 | 702 | D+6.6 | R+2.7 | D+9.3 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 713 | D+4.3 | R+2.7 | D+7.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 799 | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 790 | R+2.0 | D+2.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 773 | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | D+6.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2016-10-30 | 769 | R+13.0 | R+13.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 799 | D+4.5 | R+0.7 | D+5.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 790 | R+6.0 | D+2.5 | R+8.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 773 | D+1.5 | R+1.2 | D+2.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 769 | R+5.0 | R+3.5 | R+1.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-22 | 779 | D+5.5 | D+2.1 | D+3.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_House-G_US | House-G | 2016-10-22 | 779 | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2014-10-29 | 559 | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-29 | 647 | R+2.0 | R+8.3 | D+6.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_US | House-G | 2014-10-25 | 540 | D+1.0 | R+5.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2014-10-21 | 565 | D+3.5 | R+7.7 | D+11.2 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_GA | Gov-G | 2014-10-21 | 565 | D+2.0 | R+7.9 | D+9.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2014-10-20 | 645 | D+2.0 | D+3.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2014-10-20 | 645 | D+6.0 | D+5.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 693 | 0 | D+3.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_US | House-G | 2012-11-03 | 693 | R+1.0 | D+1.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-31 | 796 | D+3.0 | D+3.0 | D+0.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-10-29 | 748.5 | D+1.5 | D+5.4 | R+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-27 | 770 | R+0.5 | D+0.9 | R+1.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 741 | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-18 | 681 | R+1.0 | D+0.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-29 | 600 | R+10.0 | R+6.8 | R+3.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2010-10-23 | 823 | R+4.0 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2010-10-23 | 773 | R+4.0 | D+5.9 | R+9.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2010-10-23 | 785 | R+7.0 | R+11.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2010-10-23 | 829 | R+1.0 | D+1.6 | R+2.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-23 | 888 | D+5.0 | D+10.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2010-10-23 | 823 | R+7.0 | R+9.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2010-10-23 | 773 | R+24.0 | R+11.9 | R+12.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-23 | 888 | D+7.0 | D+12.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2010-10-17 | 863 | R+15.0 | R+17.4 | D+2.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2010-10-17 | 809 | R+14.0 | R+21.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2010-10-17 | 863 | D+1.0 | R+2.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-17 | 798 | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2010-10-17 | 809 | D+27.0 | D+30.8 | R+3.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_AK | Gov-G | 2010-10-17 | 946 | R+26.0 | R+21.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-31 | 746 | D+7.5 | D+7.3 | D+0.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_US | House-G | 2008-10-31 | 600 | D+9.0 | D+11.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2008-10-26 | 721 | D+28.0 | D+31.3 | R+3.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2008-10-26 | 667 | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2008-10-26 | 690 | R+9.0 | R+2.9 | R+6.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2008-10-26 | 774 | D+10.0 | D+10.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 721 | D+9.0 | D+6.3 | D+2.7 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.