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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Joint polling team

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
46
Mean absolute error
4.47percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.48
Represented cycles
102012–2025
Current archive
38canonical records
History span
Oct 18, 2012through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Beacon Research · Fox News
Participating organizations
Beacon Research · Shaw & Co. Research
Cycles represented
2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

46 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 38 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 52% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Jan 23–Jan 26, 2026
Sample
1,005 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +7

Mikie Sherrill 52% · Jack Ciattarelli 45%

Field dates
Oct 24–Oct 28, 2025
Sample
956 LV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +9

Mikie Sherrill 52% · Jack Ciattarelli 43%

Field dates
Oct 24–Oct 28, 2025
Sample
1,107 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +4

Mikie Sherrill 48% · Jack Ciattarelli 44%

Field dates
Oct 10–Oct 14, 2025
Sample
1,002 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +5

Mikie Sherrill 50% · Jack Ciattarelli 45%

Field dates
Oct 10–Oct 14, 2025
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +8

Mikie Sherrill 50% · Jack Ciattarelli 42%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 28, 2025
Sample
822 LV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +7

Mikie Sherrill 48% · Jack Ciattarelli 41%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 28, 2025
Sample
1,002 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 49% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Apr 18–Apr 21, 2025
Sample
1,104 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

46 shown · 46 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-28—D+7.0D+14.4R+7.4
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-14—D+5.0D+14.4R+9.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+2.0R+1.7D+3.7
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+1.0R+3.2D+4.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+3.0R+1.4D+4.4
20222022_Sen-G_WISen-G2022-10-281,000R+3.0R+1.0R+2.0
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-281,005D+3.0D+4.9R+1.9
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-281,002D+1.0D+1.0D+0.0
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-10-281,003D+2.0D+4.9R+2.9
20222022_Gov-G_WIGov-G2022-10-281,000R+1.0D+3.4R+4.4
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-281,005D+16.0D+14.8D+1.2
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-10-281,002R+6.0R+7.5D+1.5
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-10-281,003R+1.0D+0.7R+1.7
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-261,015R+8.0R+1.9R+6.1
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-12726D+5.0R+1.9D+6.9
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-281,246D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-191,032D+8.0D+1.7D+6.3
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-191,037D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-191,045D+5.0D+1.2D+3.8
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-191,018R+3.0R+8.0D+5.0
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-191,032D+12.0D+2.8D+9.2
20182018_Sen-G_TNSen-G2018-10-29718R+9.0R+10.8D+1.8
20182018_Sen-G_NDSen-G2018-10-29789R+9.0R+10.9D+1.9
20182018_Sen-G_MOSen-G2018-10-297410R+5.8D+5.8
20182018_Sen-G_INSen-G2018-10-29722D+7.0R+5.9D+12.9
20182018_House-G_ND-1House-G2018-10-29789R+22.0R+24.7D+2.7
20182018_Gov-G_TNGov-G2018-10-29718R+17.0R+21.0D+4.0
20182018_Sen-G_AZSen-G2018-10-286430D+2.3R+2.3
20182018_Gov-G_AZGov-G2018-10-28643R+18.0R+14.2R+3.8
20172017_Sen-GS_ALSen-G2017-12-091,127D+10.0D+1.6D+8.3
20172017_Gov-G_VAGov-G2017-11-041,239D+5.0D+8.9R+3.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-051,295D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-11-051,295R+1.0R+1.1D+0.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-021,107D+1.5D+2.1R+0.6
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-241,221D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-241,221D+2.0R+1.1D+3.1
20142014_Sen-G_NCSen-G2014-10-29909D+1.0R+1.6D+2.6
20142014_Sen-G_IASen-G2014-10-29911R+1.0R+8.3D+7.3
20142014_Gov-G_OHGov-G2014-10-29803R+15.0R+30.6D+15.6
20142014_Gov-G_KSGov-G2014-10-29907D+6.0R+3.7D+9.7
20142014_Gov-G_IAGov-G2014-10-29911R+17.0R+21.7D+4.7
20142014_House-G_USHouse-G2014-10-26734D+1.0R+5.9D+6.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-291,1280D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_Pres-G_VAPres-G2012-10-241,126R+2.0D+3.9R+5.9
20122012_Pres-G_OHPres-G2012-10-181,131D+3.0D+3.0D+0.0
20122012_Pres-G_FLPres-G2012-10-181,130R+3.0D+0.9R+3.9

2 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.