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Pollster file

AtlasIntel

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
57
Mean absolute error
1.76percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.04
Represented cycles
42020–2025
Current archive
18canonical records
History span
Oct 27, 2020through Oct 30, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2020 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

57 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

6 shown · 18 total

Disapprove +10

Approve 44.5% · Disapprove 54.5%

Field dates
May 21–May 27, 2025
Sample
3,469 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +9.2

Dem 50.9% · Rep 41.7%

Field dates
May 21–May 27, 2025
Sample
3,469 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +6.3

Approve 46.1% · Disapprove 52.4%

Field dates
Apr 10–Apr 14, 2025
Sample
2,347 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +5.1

Approve 47.3% · Disapprove 52.4%

Field dates
Mar 7–Mar 12, 2025
Sample
2,550 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +0.6

Approve 50.3% · Disapprove 49.7%

Field dates
Feb 24–Feb 27, 2025
Sample
2,849 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +0.4

Approve 50.1% · Disapprove 49.7%

Field dates
Jan 21–Jan 23, 2025
Sample
1,882 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 57 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-30—D+1.0D+14.4R+13.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-10-30—R+1.0D+6.7R+7.7
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+3.0R+3.1D+0.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+2.0R+3.2D+1.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+2.0R+1.4R+0.6
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-04—R+5.0R+5.5D+0.5
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.5R+1.5R+0.0
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+2.0R+1.7R+0.3
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+6.0R+3.1R+2.9
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+3.5R+3.2R+0.3
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.5R+1.4R+0.1
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+6.5R+5.5R+1.0
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+2.0R+1.5R+0.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+0.5R+0.9D+0.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+1.5R+1.7D+0.2
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+4.0R+3.1R+0.9
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+4.0R+3.2R+0.8
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+0.8R+1.4D+0.6
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—R+4.5R+5.5D+1.0
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+2.5R+1.5R+1.0
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+0.5R+0.9D+0.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+2.5R+1.7R+0.8
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+1.0R+3.1D+2.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—D+0.5R+3.2D+3.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+3.0R+2.2R+0.8
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+4.5R+5.5D+1.0
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—R+3.0R+1.5R+1.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—D+1.0R+0.9D+1.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—R+3.0R+1.7R+1.3
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—0R+3.1D+3.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—D+1.5R+3.2D+4.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—R+3.0R+1.4R+1.6
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—0R+5.5D+5.5
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-11-06791R+3.2D+1.0R+4.2
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-11-06863R+3.1R+2.7R+0.4
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2021-01-03857D+3.9D+2.1D+1.8
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2021-01-03857D+4.5D+1.2D+3.3
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2020-12-291,680D+4.2D+2.1D+2.1
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2020-12-291,680D+4.3D+1.2D+3.1
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-31781D+1.9D+0.6D+1.3
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-31962R+2.7R+5.6D+2.9
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-31812R+2.0R+1.4R+0.7

2 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.