Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 6
- Mean absolute error
- 7.07percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.95
- Represented cycles
- 52000–2008
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2000through Oct 25, 2008
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008
6 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
6 shown · 6 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 1,019 | R+2.0 | R+8.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2006-10-21 | 1,019 | R+6.0 | R+9.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2006-10-21 | 1,019 | D+43.0 | D+27.1 | D+15.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 573 | R+5.0 | R+10.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2002-10-20 | 300 | D+8.0 | D+1.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2000-10-21 | 600 | R+10.0 | R+6.3 | R+3.7 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.