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Pollster file

American Research Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
86
Mean absolute error
4.25percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.10
Represented cycles
102000–2020
Current archive
37canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2000through Oct 27, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2020

86 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 37 total

Disapprove +22

Approve 38% · Disapprove 60%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 20, 2025
Sample
1,004 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 38% · Disapprove 59%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 38% · Disapprove 59%

Field dates
Jul 17–Jul 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 38% · Disapprove 59%

Field dates
Jul 17–Jul 20, 2025
Sample
1,006 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 38% · Disapprove 59%

Field dates
Jun 17–Jun 20, 2025
Sample
1,009 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +13

Approve 42% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates
May 17–May 20, 2025
Sample
1,008 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +14

Approve 41% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates
May 17–May 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +10

Approve 43% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2025
Sample
1,010 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +10

Approve 43% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +5

Approve 46% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 20, 2025
Sample
1,011 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +6

Approve 45% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +8

Approve 43% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Feb 17–Feb 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 86 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Sen-G_NHSen-G2020-10-27600D+17.0D+15.7D+1.3
20202020_Pres-G_NHPres-G2020-10-27600D+19.0D+7.4D+11.6
20202020_Gov-G_NHGov-G2020-10-27600R+5.0R+31.8D+26.8
20162016_Sen-G_NHSen-G2016-11-01600R+3.0D+0.1R+3.1
20162016_Pres-G_NHPres-G2016-11-01600R+5.0D+0.4R+5.4
20162016_Gov-G_NHGov-G2016-11-01600R+4.0R+2.3R+1.7
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-191,006D+7.0D+2.1D+4.9
20142014_Sen-G_NHSen-G2014-10-286000D+3.3R+3.3
20142014_Gov-G_NHGov-G2014-10-28600D+2.0D+5.0R+3.0
20142014_Sen-G_NHSen-G2014-10-21600D+1.0D+3.3R+2.3
20142014_Gov-G_NHGov-G2014-10-21600D+10.0D+5.0D+5.0
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-11-031,2000D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_Pres-G_NHPres-G2012-11-036000D+5.6R+5.6
20122012_Pres-G_IAPres-G2012-11-03600R+1.0D+5.8R+6.8
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-271,2000D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_Pres-G_COPres-G2012-10-27600R+1.0D+5.4R+6.4
20122012_Pres-G_OHPres-G2012-10-24600D+2.0D+3.0R+1.0
20122012_Pres-G_NVPres-G2012-10-21600D+2.0D+6.7R+4.7
20122012_Pres-G_NHPres-G2012-10-21600R+2.0D+5.6R+7.6
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-201,200R+2.0D+3.9R+5.8
20102010_Sen-GS_MASen-G2010-01-16600R+7.0R+4.8R+2.2
20102010_Sen-GS_MASen-G2010-01-13600R+3.0R+4.8D+1.8
20082008_Pres-G_WVPres-G2008-11-02600R+11.0R+13.1D+2.1
20082008_Pres-G_VAPres-G2008-11-02600D+4.0D+6.3R+2.3
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-11-021,200D+8.0D+7.3D+0.7
20082008_Pres-G_NVPres-G2008-11-02600D+5.0D+12.6R+7.6
20082008_Pres-G_NCPres-G2008-11-02600D+1.0D+0.3D+0.7
20082008_Pres-G_AKPres-G2008-11-02600R+12.0R+21.6D+9.7
20082008_Pres-G_PAPres-G2008-10-30600D+6.0D+10.3R+4.3
20082008_Pres-G_INPres-G2008-10-306000D+1.0R+1.0
20082008_Pres-G_FLPres-G2008-10-30600D+4.0D+2.8D+1.2
20082008_Pres-G_ARPres-G2008-10-30600R+7.0R+19.9D+12.8
20082008_Sen-G_NHSen-G2008-10-29600D+12.0D+6.3D+5.7
20082008_Pres-G_NHPres-G2008-10-29600D+15.0D+9.6D+5.4
20082008_Pres-G_MTPres-G2008-10-29600R+3.0R+2.3R+0.7
20082008_Pres-G_MOPres-G2008-10-296000R+0.1D+0.1
20082008_Pres-G_COPres-G2008-10-29600D+7.0D+8.9R+1.9
20082008_Pres-G_AZPres-G2008-10-29600R+4.0R+8.5D+4.5
20082008_Gov-G_NHGov-G2008-10-29600D+40.0D+42.6R+2.6
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-261,200D+5.0D+7.3R+2.3
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-191,200D+4.0D+7.3R+3.3
20062006_House-G_NH-2House-G2006-10-31619R+3.0D+7.1R+10.1
20042004_Pres-G_NHPres-G2004-10-31600R+0.5D+1.4R+1.9
20042004_Pres-G_FLPres-G2004-10-31600D+2.0R+5.0D+7.0
20042004_Sen-G_NHSen-G2004-10-29600R+40.0R+32.5R+7.5
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-291,258D+0.5R+2.5D+3.0
20042004_Pres-G_NMPres-G2004-10-29600D+0.5R+0.8D+1.3
20042004_Pres-G_NHPres-G2004-10-296000D+1.4R+1.4
20042004_Pres-G_WIPres-G2004-10-26600D+1.0D+0.4D+0.6
20042004_Pres-G_ORPres-G2004-10-26600D+4.0D+4.2R+0.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.