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Pollster file

American Research Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
86
Mean absolute error
4.25percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.10
Represented cycles
102000–2020
Current archive
37canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2000through Oct 27, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2020

86 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 37 total

Disapprove +29

Approve 34% · Disapprove 63%

Field dates
Mar 16–Mar 20, 2026
Sample
1,008 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +26

Approve 36% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +26

Approve 36% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +28

Approve 35% · Disapprove 63%

Field dates
Jan 16–Jan 20, 2026
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +27

Approve 35% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Dec 17–Dec 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +27

Approve 35% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Dec 17–Dec 20, 2025
Sample
999 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +27

Approve 35% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Nov 17–Nov 20, 2025
Sample
999 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +27

Approve 35% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
Nov 17–Nov 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +23

Approve 37% · Disapprove 60%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +23

Approve 37% · Disapprove 60%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 20, 2025
Sample
1,001 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 37% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates
Sep 17–Sep 20, 2025
Sample
1,002 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +21

Approve 37% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates
Sep 17–Sep 20, 2025
Sample
1,100 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

36 shown · 86 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20042004_Pres-G_IAPres-G2004-10-26600R+1.0R+0.7R+0.3
20042004_Pres-G_PAPres-G2004-10-24600D+3.0D+2.5D+0.5
20042004_Pres-G_OHPres-G2004-10-24600D+2.0R+2.1D+4.1
20042004_Pres-G_FLPres-G2004-10-24600D+2.5R+5.0D+7.5
20042004_Pres-G_WIPres-G2004-10-186000D+0.4R+0.4
20042004_Pres-G_NMPres-G2004-10-17600D+1.5R+0.8D+2.3
20042004_Pres-G_NHPres-G2004-10-17600R+0.5D+1.4R+1.9
20042004_House-G_PA-17House-G2004-10-15320D+12.0D+20.2R+8.2
20022002_Sen-G_NHSen-G2002-11-03600R+4.0R+4.4D+0.4
20022002_House-G_NH-2House-G2002-11-03300R+22.0R+16.0R+6.0
20022002_House-G_NH-1House-G2002-11-03300R+11.0R+19.6D+8.6
20022002_Gov-G_NHGov-G2002-11-03600R+15.0R+20.4D+5.5
20022002_Sen-G_NHSen-G2002-10-29600R+2.0R+4.4D+2.4
20022002_House-G_NH-2House-G2002-10-29300R+17.0R+16.0R+1.0
20022002_House-G_NH-1House-G2002-10-29300R+10.0R+19.6D+9.6
20022002_Gov-G_NHGov-G2002-10-29600R+16.0R+20.4D+4.5
20022002_Sen-G_NHSen-G2002-10-21600R+2.0R+4.4D+2.4
20022002_House-G_NH-2House-G2002-10-21300R+19.0R+16.0R+3.0
20022002_House-G_NH-1House-G2002-10-21300R+14.0R+19.6D+5.6
20022002_Gov-G_NHGov-G2002-10-21600R+19.0R+20.4D+1.4
20022002_Sen-G_NHSen-G2002-10-15600R+8.0R+4.4R+3.6
20022002_House-G_NH-2House-G2002-10-15300R+21.0R+16.0R+5.0
20022002_House-G_NH-1House-G2002-10-15300R+19.0R+19.6D+0.6
20022002_Gov-G_NHGov-G2002-10-15600R+29.0R+20.4R+8.6
20002000_Pres-G_NHPres-G2000-11-03600R+10.0R+1.3R+8.7
20002000_Pres-G_MOPres-G2000-11-03600D+1.0R+3.3D+4.3
20002000_Pres-G_NHPres-G2000-11-01600R+5.0R+1.3R+3.7
20002000_Gov-G_NHGov-G2000-11-01600R+1.0D+5.0R+6.0
20002000_Pres-G_TNPres-G2000-10-31600D+6.0R+3.9D+9.9
20002000_Pres-G_PAPres-G2000-10-31600D+6.0D+4.2D+1.8
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-10-31600D+4.0D+5.1R+1.1
20002000_Pres-G_FLPres-G2000-10-31600D+5.0R+0.0D+5.0
20002000_Pres-G_PAPres-G2000-10-22600D+5.0D+4.2D+0.8
20002000_Pres-G_ORPres-G2000-10-22600R+4.0D+0.4R+4.4
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-10-22600D+3.0D+5.1R+2.1
20002000_Pres-G_FLPres-G2000-10-22600D+4.0R+0.0D+4.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.