Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-NH

New Hampshire Senate polls

Chris Pappas (D) vs Republican (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+0.8same figure as the race page
Polls1919 recorded polls · 19 eligible for the aggregate · 17 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 30Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-30 (10 days old)
EditionSep 9weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+10R+5EVEND+5D+10Apr ’25JulOctJan ’26AprJul
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • trailing 30-day average
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 26

newest first

22 in the aggregate · 4 shown, not counted · 25 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedSampleResultWeightSource
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVJohn Sununu 37Chris Pappas 36Don't know 23Tim Harris 1Christine Lopez 1Aaron Day 1Edmond LaPlante 0Jeanne Logan Morrow 00.542Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral1,846 LVChris Pappas 45Scott Brown 40Don't know 10Someone else 5+3 other releases0.505Poll release
St. AnselmGeneral1,411 LVChris Pappas 49Scott Brown 37Don't know 13+1 other release0.408Poll release
Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan500 LVChris Pappas 43John Sununu 42Don't know 150.044Poll document
St. AnselmGeneral1,614 RVChris Pappas 48Scott Brown 36Don't know 16+1 other release0.073Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral2,157 LVChris Pappas 47John Sununu 44Don't know 7Someone else 2+3 other releases0.070Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral1,130 LVChris Pappas 49John Sununu 42Don't know 6Someone else 4+2 other releases0.006Poll release
Emerson CollegeGeneral1,100 LVChris Pappas 45.4John Sununu 43.7Don't know 5.7Someone else 5.1+2 other releases0.003Poll release
St. AnselmGeneral1,491 RVChris Pappas 47Scott Brown 38Don't know 14+1 other release0.003Poll release
yes. every kid. foundation.General563 LVChris Pappas 45John Sununu 41Don't know 10Someone else 40.000Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral2,038 LVChris Pappas 50John Sununu 45Don't know 5Someone else 1+2 other releases0.000Poll release
Praecones AnalyticaGeneral603 RVChris Pappas 42.3John Sununu 35.6Don't know 22.1+2 other releases0.000Poll release

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.