New Hampshire Senate polls
Chris Pappas (D) vs John Sununu (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+5.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls3939 on file · 28 in the poll average · 11 not counted
Latest field dateOct 20Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-20 (4 days old)
EditionOct 23the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026D+5.7today's poll average of 28 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | D+5.7 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 20–Oct 22, 2026 | D+5.7 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 12–Oct 19, 2026 | D+5.7 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 5–Oct 11, 2026 | D+5.7 | D+5.7 |
| Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | D+5.4 | D+5.6 to D+5.7 |
| Sep 27–Sep 28, 2026 | D+5.1 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 22–Sep 26, 2026 | D+4.8 | D+5.1 to D+5.4 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | D+4.8 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.8 to D+5.0 |
| Sep 11–Sep 16, 2026 | D+3.5 | D+4.2 to D+4.8 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.1 |
| Aug 30–Sep 9, 2026 | D+2.3 | D+2.6 to D+3.9 |
| Aug 24–Aug 29, 2026 | D+3.2 | D+2.6 to D+2.4 |
| Aug 18–Aug 23, 2026 | D+4.5 | D+3.8 to D+2.8 |
| Jun 27–Aug 17, 2026 | D+3.8 | D+3.8 to D+4.0 |
| Jun 25–Jun 26, 2026 | D+4.4 | D+3.8 |
| Jun 23–Jun 24, 2026 | D+3.6 | D+3.9 |
| Apr 21–Jun 22, 2026 | D+4.0 | D+4.0 to D+3.9 |
| Mar 23–Apr 20, 2026 | D+3.3 | D+3.3 to D+4.0 |
| Mar 18–Mar 22, 2026 | D+3.8 | D+3.4 to D+3.3 |
| Jan 29–Mar 17, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 to D+3.5 |
| Jan 19–Jan 28, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 |
| Dec 28–Jan 18, 2026 | D+4.0 | D+4.0 to D+4.3 |
| Dec 11–Dec 27, 2025 | D+2.9 | D+2.9 to D+4.0 |
| Nov 19–Dec 10, 2025 | D+2.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 13–Nov 18, 2025 | D+2.7 | D+2.7 to D+2.9 |
| Sep 12–Oct 12, 2025 | D+2.6 | D+2.6 to D+2.7 |
| Sep 4–Sep 11, 2025 | D+2.0 | D+2.3 to D+2.6 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+5.9.
Every poll on file · 39
newest first28 in the poll average · 11 shown, not counted · 25 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint AnselmGeneral · Senate | 1,672 LV | D+7.0Chris Pappas 50John Sununu 43 | 16h ago | counted once · listed twice | Poll release | |
| ●St. AnselmGeneral | 1,672 LV | D+7.0Chris Pappas 50John Sununu 43Someone else 5Don't know 2 | 2d ago | 0.97 | Poll release | |
| ●National Public AffairsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | D+7.0Chris Pappas 50John Sununu 43Edmond Laplante 4Don't know 3+1 other release | 4d ago | 0.59 | Poll document | |
| ●YouGovGeneral | 1,519 LV | D+8.0Chris Pappas 51John Sununu 43Don't know 4Someone else 1Would not vote 0 | 0.81 | Poll document | ||
| ●St. AnselmGeneral | 1,042 LV | D+7.0Chris Pappas 51John Sununu 44Someone else 3Don't know 1 | 0.67 | Poll release | ||
| ●St. AnselmGeneral | 1,042 LV | D+7.0Chris Pappas 51John Sununu 44 | 0.67 | Poll release | ||
| ●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,082 LV | D+6.9Chris Pappas 47.4John Sununu 40.5Don't know 11Edmond Laplante 1.1 | 0.66 | Poll release | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 613 LV | D+5.0Chris Pappas 49.82John Sununu 44.82Don't know 4.5Someone else 0.86 | 0.47 | News coverage | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 1,392 LV | D+8.0Chris Pappas 50John Sununu 42Don't know 4Edmond Laplante 2Someone else 1 | 0.69 | Poll release | ||
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | D+7.9Chris Pappas 47.8John Sununu 39.9Don't know 9.1Edmond Laplante 1.4Matt Giovonizzi 1Tim Harris 0.8 | 0.62 | Poll release | ||
| ●co/efficientGeneral | 958 LV | TiedGeneric Democrat 46Generic Republican 46Don't know 8+1 other release | 0.52 | Poll release | ||
| ●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 1,000 LV | D+11.0Chris Pappas 45John Sununu 34 | 0.52 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.