Montana Senate polls 2026
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
How the forecast reads these polls
the same figures as the race pageThe forecast’s numbers for this race start from a weighted average of the 17 polls below that named every candidate: Kurt Alme 46.6%, Seth Bodnar 29.6% and Alani Bankhead 21.2%.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+22.6today's poll average of the Democrat against the Republican of 15 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's poll average of the Democrat against the Republican
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's poll average of the Democrat against the Republican.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+22.6 | R+22.6 |
| Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026 | R+22.6 | R+22.6 |
| Oct 18–Oct 22, 2026 | R+22.2 | R+22.5 to R+22.6 |
| Oct 12–Oct 17, 2026 | R+21.9 | R+22.1 to R+22.4 |
| Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026 | R+21.1 | R+21.7 to R+22.0 |
| Sep 24–Oct 7, 2026 | R+21.0 | R+21.0 to R+21.5 |
| Sep 15–Sep 23, 2026 | R+20.0 | R+20.3 to R+20.9 |
| Sep 7–Sep 14, 2026 | R+17.3 | R+18.6 to R+20.2 |
| Aug 25–Sep 6, 2026 | R+15.7 | R+15.8 to R+18.2 |
| Aug 4–Aug 24, 2026 | R+12.8 | R+12.8 to R+15.7 |
| Jul 26–Aug 3, 2026 | R+12.0 | R+12.5 to R+12.8 |
| Jul 16–Jul 25, 2026 | R+13.2 | R+12.9 to R+12.4 |
| Jun 24–Jul 15, 2026 | R+12.8 | R+12.8 to R+13.0 |
| Jun 11–Jun 23, 2026 | R+19.0 | R+18.7 to R+12.8 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+21.7.
Every poll on file · 21
newest added first15 in the poll average · 2 read for candidate shares only (17 in all, each marked “every candidate named”; the others are also in the poll average) · 4 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Concord Public Opinion PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan · for Education Reform Now Advocacy | from Oct 22 | 410 LV | R+28.0Seth Bodnar 39Kurt Alme 38Don't know 11Alani Bankhead 10Kyle Austin 2every candidate namedKurt Alme 42.7Seth Bodnar 43.8Alani Bankhead 11.2 | 8h ago | 0.52 | Poll release |
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral | from Oct 15 | 667 LV | R+24.4Kurt Alme 45.6Seth Bodnar 29.4Alani Bankhead 21.2Kyle Austin 1.8Don't know 1.5Someone else 0.4every candidate namedKurt Alme 46.9Seth Bodnar 21.4Alani Bankhead 29.6 | 0.63 | Poll release | |
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | from Oct 7 | 500 LV | R+32.0Kurt Alme 44Seth Bodnar 29Alani Bankhead 12Don't know 10Kyle Austin 3None 2every candidate namedKurt Alme 50.0Seth Bodnar 33.0Alani Bankhead 13.6 | 0.51 | Pollster post | |
| ●Concord Public Opinion PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan · for Education Reform Now Advocacy | from Oct 6 | 405 LV | R+22.0Seth Bodnar 37Kurt Alme 35Don't know 13Alani Bankhead 13Kyle Austin 1every candidate namedKurt Alme 40.7Seth Bodnar 43.0Alani Bankhead 15.1 | 0.43 | Poll release | |
| ●American Pulse Research & PollingGeneral · for KULR-TV | from Sep 19 | 604 LV | R+26.2Kurt Alme 45.1Seth Bodnar 26.1Alani Bankhead 18.9Don't know 7.2Kyle Austin 2.7every candidate namedKurt Alme 50.0Seth Bodnar 28.9Alani Bankhead 21.1 | 0.45 | Poll release | |
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral | from Sep 14 | 625 LV | R+20.9Kurt Alme 45.3Seth Bodnar 26.1Alani Bankhead 24.4Don't know 2.4Someone else 1.7every candidate namedKurt Alme 48.4Seth Bodnar 26.4Alani Bankhead 25.3 | 0.41 | Poll release | |
| ●Aspect StrategicGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan · for Montana Freedom PAC | from Sep 7 | 715 LV | R+30.0Kurt Alme 44Seth Bodnar 32Alani Bankhead 14Don't know 7Kyle Austin 3every candidate namedKurt Alme 47.3Seth Bodnar 34.4Alani Bankhead 15.1 | 0.44 | Pollster post | |
| ●Rutgers-EagletonGeneral · for Montana Free Press | from Aug 27 | 845 RV | R+22.0Kurt Alme 38Seth Bodnar 30Alani Bankhead 16Someone else 6Would not vote 5Kyle Austin 5every candidate namedKurt Alme 42.7Seth Bodnar 33.7Alani Bankhead 18.0 | 0.44 | Poll release | |
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | from Aug 23 | 600 LV | R+25.0Kurt Alme 44Seth Bodnar 22Alani Bankhead 19Don't know 12None 2Kyle Austin 2every candidate namedKurt Alme 50.6Seth Bodnar 25.3Alani Bankhead 21.8 | 0.32 | News coverage | |
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · Senate · IND sponsor · IND partisan · for Forward Montana | from Aug 1 | 800 LV | R+30.0Kurt Alme 45Seth Bodnar 30Alani Bankhead 15Kyle Austin 6+2 other releasesevery candidate namedKurt Alme 46.9Seth Bodnar 31.3Alani Bankhead 15.6 | 0.29 | Poll release | |
| Tavern ResearchGeneral · Senate | from Jul 23 | 517 LV | Kurt Alme 51Seth Bodnar 49+5 other releasesevery candidate namedKurt Alme 49.0Seth Bodnar 25.0Alani Bankhead 24.0 | read for the candidates' shares | Poll document | |
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan · for The Independent Center | from Jul 13 | 793 LV | R+14.0Kurt Alme 36Seth Bodnar 24Alani Bankhead 22Don't know 17Someone else 1every candidate namedKurt Alme 43.9Seth Bodnar 29.3Alani Bankhead 26.8 | 0.23 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.