Montana Senate polls
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+11.7same figure as the race page
Polls33 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 4Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-04 (40 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 14
newest first3 in the aggregate · 11 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-EagletonGeneral | 845 RV | Kurt Alme 38Seth Bodnar 30Alani Bankhead 16Someone else 6Would not vote 5Kyle Austin 5 | 1d ago | not in the aggregate | Poll release | |
| Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | Kurt Alme 44Seth Bodnar 22Alani Bankhead 19Don't know 13Kyle Austin 2 | 5d ago | not in the aggregate | News coverage | |
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · Senate · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 800 LV | Kurt Alme 45Seth Bodnar 30Alani Bankhead 15Kyle Austin 6+2 other releases | 0.085 | Poll release | ||
| Tavern ResearchGeneral · Senate | 517 LV | Kurt Alme 51Seth Bodnar 49+5 other releases | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| ●GQRGeneral · Senate · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 500 LV | Kurt Alme 41Seth Bodnar 27Alani Bankhead 22Kyle Austin 6+4 other releases | 0.063 | Poll release | ||
| The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · Senate | 793 LV | Kurt Alme 36Seth Bodnar 24Alani Bankhead 22+1 other release | not in the aggregate | News coverage | ||
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | Kurt Alme 49Alani Bankhead 43+2 other releases | 0.044 | Poll document | ||
| GrayhouseGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | Kurt Alme 41Alani Bankhead 25Seth Bodnar 17Kyle Austin 3+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| Tavern ResearchGeneral · Senate | 400 LV | Kurt Alme 56Alani Bankhead 44+2 other releases | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | Kurt Alme 44Alani Bankhead 25Seth Bodnar 20Kyle Austin 4+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| Tavern ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 607 LV | Kurt Alme 56Generic Democrat 44+3 other releases | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 616 LV | Kurt Alme 36.84Seth Bodnar 35.06Don't know 25.86Would not vote 2.23 | not in the aggregate | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.