WI-6 House polls
Brad Smith (D) vs Glenn Grothman (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+22.0same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateMay 28Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-05-28 (108 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 2
newest first1 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tavern ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 437 LV | Glenn Grothman 61Brad Smith 39+2 other releases | 0.007 | Poll release | ||
| Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 640 LV | Glenn Grothman 41.69Michael Thurow 37.74Don't know 18.22Would not vote 2.35 | not in the aggregate | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.