Race polling · HOU-WI-3

WI-3 House polls 2026

Rebecca Cooke (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+3.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls44 on file · 4 in the poll average

Latest field dateJun 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-06-25 (125 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+3.7today's poll average of 4 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+3.7	D+3.7
Jun 25–Oct 27, 2026	D+3.7	D+3.7
May 31–Jun 24, 2026	D+3.2	D+3.2 to D+3.6
Feb 17–May 30, 2026	D+1.2	D+1.2 to D+3.2
Oct 15–Feb 16, 2026	D+2.0	D+2.0 to D+1.2

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+1.7.

Every poll on file · 4

newest added first

4 in the poll average · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 15, 2025	609 LV	D+2.0Rebecca Cooke 44Derrick Van Orden 42+1 other release	Jul 20	0.01	Poll document
●FM3 ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 25, 2026	535 LV	D+4.0Rebecca Cooke 50Derrick Van Orden 46	Jul 6	0.15	Poll release
●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	May 31, 2026	500 LV	D+4.0Rebecca Cooke 50Derrick Van Orden 46Don't know 3	Jun 4	0.11	Poll document
●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Feb 17, 2026	500 LV	D+1.0Rebecca Cooke 49Derrick Van Orden 48Don't know 3	Mar 18	0.03	Poll document

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.