Race polling · HOU-WI-1

WI-1 House polls 2026

Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageR+0.2the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls55 on file · 4 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-01 (27 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026R+0.2today's poll average of 4 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	R+0.2	R+0.2
Oct 1–Oct 27, 2026	R+0.2	R+0.2
Sep 23–Sep 30, 2026	R+0.9	R+0.6 to R+0.2
Aug 9–Sep 22, 2026	R+2.3	R+2.3 to R+0.6
Mar 16–Aug 8, 2026	R+9.0	R+9.0 to R+2.3

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.1.

Every poll on file · 5

newest added first

4 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 23, 2026	495 LV	Brian Steil 48Mitchell Berman 48	Oct 15	not in the average	Poll release
●Impact ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 1, 2026	500 LV	D+1.0Mitchell Berman 48Bryan Steil 47+1 other release	Oct 4	0.45	Pollster post
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 23, 2026	495 LV	TiedBryan Steil 48Mitchell Berman 48	Sep 29	0.40	Poll release
●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Aug 9, 2026	400 LV	TiedGeneric Republican 44Generic Democrat 44+1 other release	Aug 13	0.22	Poll release
●Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Mar 16, 2026	400 LV	R+9.0Bryan Steil 50Mitchell Berman 41Don't know 9+1 other release	Apr 29	0.04	News coverage

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.