Race polling · HOU-WA-3

WA-3 House polls 2026

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs John Braun (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageR+0.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls77 on file · 5 in the poll average · 2 not counted

Latest field dateOct 21Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-21 (7 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026R+0.7today's poll average of 5 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
not counted · shown, never moves the line
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	R+0.7	R+0.7
Oct 21–Oct 27, 2026	R+0.7	R+0.7
Sep 27–Oct 20, 2026	R+2.0	R+2.0 to R+0.7
Jul 10–Sep 26, 2026	R+2.8	R+2.8 to R+2.1
Apr 29–Jul 9, 2026	R+7.0	R+7.0 to R+2.8

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+1.7.

Every poll on file · 7

newest added first

5 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Change ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 21, 2026	551 LV	D+1.0Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 45John Braun 44	Oct 226d ago	0.59	Poll release
●DHM ResearchGeneral	Jul 10, 2026	543 LV	R+2.0John Braun 46Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 44	Oct 3	0.18	Poll release
●DHM ResearchGeneral	Sep 27, 2026	543 LV	R+1.0John Braun 48Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 47Don't know 5	Oct 1	0.44	Poll release
Voter SciencesGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan	Aug 20, 2025	600 RV	R+7.0John Braun 48Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 41	Jul 29	0 · not counted	Poll release
●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 10, 2026	500 LV	R+1.0John Braun 45Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 44+1 other release	Jul 20	0.17	Poll release
Voter SciencesGeneral · House · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Aug 1, 2025	— RV	R+6.3John Braun 47.55Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 41.29	Jul 20	not in the average	Poll release
●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Apr 29, 2026	982 LV	D+1.0Generic Democrat 45Generic Republican 44Don't know 11+1 other release	May 8	0.10	News coverage

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.