VA-5 House polls 2026
Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+4.2the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 3 in the poll average
Latest field dateSep 28Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-28 (30 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, R+4.2, is of three polls, which run from R+1.0 to R+6.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+5.0.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first3 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentGeneral | 600 LV | R+6.0John McGuire 51Tom Perriello 45Don't know 2Would not vote 1Someone else 1 | 0.47 | News coverage | ||
| ●Expedition StrategiesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | R+1.0John McGuire 46Tom Perriello 45Cooke Harvey 6Don't know 3+1 other release | 0.37 | News coverage | ||
| ●Expedition StrategiesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 602 LV | R+3.0John McGuire 47Tom Perriello 44Don't know 9 | 0.24 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.