Race polling · HOU-VA-1

VA-1 House polls 2026

Shannon Taylor (D) vs Robert Wittman (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+1.5the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls66 on file · 5 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (3 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+1.5today's poll average of 5 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
not counted · shown, never moves the line
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+1.5	D+1.5
Oct 25–Oct 27, 2026	D+1.5	D+1.5
Oct 22–Oct 24, 2026	D+1.3	D+1.5
Sep 28–Oct 21, 2026	D+1.5	D+1.5
Sep 17–Sep 27, 2026	R+1.3	R+0.7 to D+1.5
Mar 12–Sep 16, 2026	R+4.0	R+4.0 to R+1.0

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+0.1.

Every poll on file · 6

newest added first

5 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 25, 2026	478 LV	D+1.0Shannon Taylor 48Robert Wittman 47Don't know 5	Oct 271d ago	0.57	Poll release
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 22, 2026	570 LV	D+1.0Shannon Taylor 47Rob Wittman 46+1 other release	Oct 235d ago	0.61	Pollster post
●The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentGeneral	Sep 28, 2026	609 LV	D+4.0Shannon Taylor 50Robert Wittman 46Don't know 3Would not vote 1Someone else 0	Oct 15	0.47	News coverage
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 17, 2026	519 LV	R+1.0Robert Wittman 47Shannon Taylor 46Don't know 7	Sep 21	0.39	Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Aug 9, 2025	541 RV	TiedRep 47Dem 47+3 other releases	Jul 31	excluded by source policy	Poll release
●Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · House · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Mar 12, 2026	400 LV	D+2.0Dem 44Rep 42+2 other releases	Jul 20	0.04	News coverage

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.