VA-1 House polls
Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rep (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+1.0same figure as the race page
Polls22 recorded polls · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateMar 12Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-03-12 (185 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 2
newest first2 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · House · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | Dem 44Rep 42+2 other releases | 0.001 | News coverage | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 541 RV | Rep 47Dem 47+3 other releases | excluded from aggregate | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.