TX-28 House polls
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026D+10.9today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | D+10.9 | D+10.9 |
| Oct 13–Oct 22, 2026 | D+10.9 | D+10.9 |
| Aug 22–Oct 12, 2026 | D+2.2 | D+2.2 to D+10.8 |
| Jun 23–Aug 21, 2026 | R+8.5 | R+8.5 to D+2.2 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+11.3.
Every poll on file · 7
newest first4 in the poll average · 3 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 563 LV | D+20.0Henry Cuellar 54Tano Tijerina 34 | 2d ago | not in the average | Poll release | |
| ●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 536 LV | D+20.0Henry Cuellar 54Tano Tijerina 34 | 3d ago | 0.56 | Poll release | |
| DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral | 536 LV | D+20.0Henry Cuellar 54Tano Tijerina 34 | 3d ago | excluded by source policy | Poll release | |
| ●Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral | 600 LV | D+11.0Henry Cuellar 45Tano Tijerina 34Don't know 15Marlon Duran 6 | 0.33 | Poll document | ||
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral · House | 600 LV | D+11.0Henry Cuellar 45Tano Tijerina 34Marlón Durán 6 | source not read by the model | Poll document | ||
| ●Pulse Decision ScienceGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | R+9.0Tano Tijerina 42Henry Cuellar 33Don't know 16Other named candidates 9+1 other release | 0.13 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Pulse Science DecisionGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 400 LV | R+8.0Tano Tijerina 46Henry Cuellar 38 | 0.13 | no link |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.