TN-5 House polls
Chaz Molder (D) vs Charlie Hatcher (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+11.0same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 24Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-24 (20 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 2
newest first1 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Charlie Hatcher 48Chaz Molder 40Don't know 11James Johnson 1Micheál O'Leary 0 | 0.153 | Poll document | ||
| Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 558 LV | Andy Ogles 47Chaz Molder 41Don't know 12 | not in the aggregate | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.