TN-5 House polls 2026
Chaz Molder (D) vs Charlie Hatcher (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+6.1the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 2 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateOct 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-01 (28 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
2 polls countedThe poll average, R+6.1, is of two polls, which run from R+5.0 to R+8.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+8.1.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first2 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 552 LV | R+5.0Charlie Hatcher 46Chaz Molder 41Don't know 11 | 0.47 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+8.0Charlie Hatcher 48Chaz Molder 40Don't know 11James Johnson 1Micheál O'Leary 0 | 0.29 | Poll document | ||
| Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 558 LV | Andy Ogles 47Chaz Molder 41Don't know 12 | not in the average | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.